Champion
to be champion
78.7pts on average
from 67 to 100
2026 · projection~83 (81–86)
Brazilian Championship · Brazil
Brazilian Série A
Prob11 follows 24 editions of Brazilian Série A: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. Here are the champions, who finished in each zone, how many points each spot took and the turnarounds the probabilities did not see coming.
- Editions
- 24
- Different champions
- 9
- Champion's points (avg.)
- 78.7
Who finished where
Every zone of each edition, as the table finished — a pre-qualified team shows where it actually ended up.
Champion 2025
Flamengo
79 points
How the title was decided
- November 22, 2025The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- December 3, 2025Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Libertadores6 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Champion 2024
Botafogo
79 points
How the title was decided
- December 8, 2024The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2023
Palmeiras
70 points
How the title was decided
- December 3, 2023The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- December 7, 2023The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores6 teams
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2022
Palmeiras
81 points
How the title was decided
- September 29, 2022The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 2, 2022Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Libertadores6 teams
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2021
Atletico-MG
84 points
How the title was decided
- November 7, 2021The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- December 2, 2021Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2020
Flamengo
71 points
How the title was decided
- February 26, 2021The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores6 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Champion 2019
Flamengo
90 points
How the title was decided
- October 13, 2019The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 24, 2019Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2018
Palmeiras
80 points
How the title was decided
- November 10, 2018The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 25, 2018Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Libertadores6 teams
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2017
Corinthians
72 points
How the title was decided
- November 8, 2017The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 15, 2017Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2016
Palmeiras
80 points
How the title was decided
- November 6, 2016The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 27, 2016Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Libertadores6 teams
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2015
Corinthians
81 points
How the title was decided
- October 18, 2015The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 20, 2015Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Libertadores3 teams
Libertadores Second Round1 team
Champion 2014
Cruzeiro
80 points
How the title was decided
- November 13, 2014The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 23, 2014Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Libertadores3 teams
Libertadores Second Round1 team
Champion 2013
Cruzeiro
76 points
How the title was decided
- September 29, 2013The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 13, 2013Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2012
Fluminense
77 points
How the title was decided
- October 10, 2012The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 11, 2012Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Libertadores2 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2011
Corinthians
71 points
How the title was decided
- December 4, 2011The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores3 teams
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana4 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2010
Fluminense
71 points
How the title was decided
- December 5, 2010The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores2 teams
Libertadores Second Round2 teams
Sudamericana2 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2009
Flamengo
67 points
How the title was decided
- December 6, 2009The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores3 teams
Libertadores Second Round1 team
Sudamericana5 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2008
São Paulo
75 points
How the title was decided
- December 7, 2008The title is only secured in the last match.
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2007
São Paulo
77 points
How the title was decided
- September 8, 2007The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- October 31, 2007Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Libertadores5 teams
Sudamericana7 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2006
São Paulo
78 points
How the title was decided
- November 8, 2006The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 19, 2006Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Libertadores5 teams
Sudamericana5 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2005
Corinthians
81 points
How the title was decided
- November 20, 2005The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- December 4, 2005The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores4 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
Relegation4 teams
Champion 2004
Santos
89 points
How the title was decided
- December 19, 2004The title is only secured in the last match.
Libertadores4 teams
Sudamericana5 teams
Champion 2003
Cruzeiro
100 points
How the title was decided
- October 5, 2003The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- November 30, 2003Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Libertadores5 teams
Sudamericana6 teams
How many points each spot took
Points of the last team to get into each zone — for relegation, the first team to stay out. Teams pre-qualified (through a cup, for instance) don't count. For the edition in progress, the number is the simulations' projection.
Libertadores
to get in
64.9pts on average
from 56 to 79
2026 · projection~63 (61–65)
Libertadores Second Round
to get in
59.2pts on average
from 53 to 69
2026 · projection~60 (58–63)
Sudamericana
to get in
51.4pts on average
from 44 to 67
2026 · projection~49 (47–50)
Relegation
to stay up
44.3pts on average
from 39 to 51
2026 · projection~43 (41–44)
| Edition | Champion | Libertadores | Libertadores Second Round | Sudamericana | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 79Flamengo | 64Fluminense | 60Bahia | 45Vasco | 44Internacional |
| 2024 | 79Botafogo | 59São Paulo | 53Bahia | 45Grêmio | 44Red Bull Bragantino |
| 2023 | 70Palmeiras | 66Flamengo | 62Red Bull Bragantino | 47Cruzeiro | 44Bahia |
| 2022 | 81Palmeiras | 58Athletico-PR | 55Fortaleza | 44Red Bull Bragantino | 41Cuiabá |
| 2021 | 84Atletico-MG | 56Red Bull Bragantino | 53América-MG | 47Cuiabá | 46Juventude |
| 2020 | 71Flamengo | 64Fluminense | 54Santos | 44Bahia | 41Fortaleza |
| 2019 | 90Flamengo | 63São Paulo | 56Corinthians | 46Fluminense | 39Ceará |
| 2018 | 80Palmeiras | 66Grêmio | 59Atletico-MG | 44Chapecoense | 43Vasco |
| 2017 | 72Corinthians | 56Flamengo | 54Chapecoense | 47Fluminense | 43Vitória |
| 2016 | 80Palmeiras | 62Atletico-MG | 57Athletico-PR | 47Sport | 45Vitória |
| 2015 | 81Corinthians | 68Grêmio | 62São Paulo | — | 43Figueirense |
| 2014 | 80Cruzeiro | 69Internacional | 69Corinthians | — | 40Palmeiras |
| 2013 | 76Cruzeiro | 65Grêmio | 61Botafogo | — | 45Flamengo |
| 2012 | 77Fluminense | 72Atletico-MG | 66São Paulo | — | 45Portuguesa |
| 2011 | 71Corinthians | 63Fluminense | 60Internacional | 56Botafogo | 43Cruzeiro |
| 2010 | 71Fluminense | 69Cruzeiro | 63Grêmio | 59Botafogo | 42Atlético-GO |
| 2009 | 67Flamengo | 65São Paulo | 62Cruzeiro | 55Goiás | 46Fluminense |
| 2008 | 75São Paulo | 65Palmeiras | — | 52Vitória | 44Náutico |
| 2007 | 77São Paulo | 60Cruzeiro | — | 54Athletico-PR | 45Goiás |
| 2006 | 78São Paulo | 60Paraná | — | 53Cruzeiro | 44Palmeiras |
| 2005 | 81Corinthians | 70Palmeiras | — | 59Santos | 51Ponte Preta |
| 2004 | 89Santos | 79Palmeiras | — | 67Fluminense | 51Botafogo |
| 2003 | 100Cruzeiro | 73Coritiba | — | 65Figueirense | 49Paysandu |
Turnarounds
Outcomes the probabilities rated unlikely. A team that missed a zone only because it finished in a better one doesn't count, nor do changes from a pre-qualification activated after the last match (a domestic cup winner taking its continental berth and freeing its league spot, for instance).
Happened against the odds
- Corinthians 2024
had just a <0.1% chance of Libertadores Second Round (August 26, 2024) and finished there.
<0.1%Libertadores Second Round 
Athletico-PR 2021had just a <0.1% chance of Libertadores (November 16, 2021) and finished there.
<0.1%Libertadores- Flamengo 2017
had just a <0.1% chance of Libertadores (November 26, 2017) and finished there.
<0.1%Libertadores 
Chapecoense 2016had just a <0.1% chance of Libertadores (October 22, 2016) and finished there.
<0.1%Libertadores
Sport 2016had just a <0.1% chance of Sudamericana (November 26, 2016) and finished there.
<0.1%Sudamericana
Grêmio 2016had just a <0.1% chance of Libertadores (November 17, 2016) and finished there.
<0.1%Libertadores
Looked certain, didn't happen
- Atletico-MG 2003
reached a >99.9% chance of Libertadores (December 13, 2003) and missed out.
>99.9%Libertadores - Botafogo 2023
reached a >99.9% chance of Libertadores (October 21, 2023) and missed out.
>99.9%Libertadores - Fluminense 2005
reached a 99.1% chance of Libertadores (November 6, 2005) and missed out.
99.1%Libertadores - Fluminense 2009
the risk of Relegation reached 98.3% (October 8, 2009), and the team escaped.
98.3%Relegation - Palmeiras 2009
reached a 97.3% chance of Libertadores (October 10, 2009) and missed out.
97.3%Libertadores - Sport 2017
the risk of Relegation reached 95.1% (November 16, 2017), and the team escaped.
95.1%Relegation
Who did it most
How many times each team finished in each zone across the 23 finished editions Prob11 tracks.
| Team | Champion | Libertadores | Libertadores Second Round | Sudamericana | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 4× | 13× | · | 2× | 1× |
| Flamengo | 4× | 12× | 1× | 2× | · |
| Corinthians | 4× | 7× | 4× | 6× | 1× |
| São Paulo | 3× | 11× | 3× | 6× | · |
| Cruzeiro | 3× | 9× | 1× | 5× | 1× |
| Fluminense | 2× | 8× | 1× | 7× | · |
| Santos | 1× | 7× | 1× | 5× | 1× |
| Atletico-MG | 1× | 6× | 2× | 7× | 1× |
| Botafogo | 1× | 1× | 4× | 8× | 2× |
| Grêmio | · | 9× | 3× | 4× | 2× |
 Internacional | · | 8× | 2× | 6× | 1× |
| Athletico-PR | · | 5× | 2× | 6× | 2× |
See all 45 teams
 Fortaleza | · | 2× | 1× | 2× | 3× |
 Vasco | · | 1× | 1× | 5× | 4× |
 Red Bull Bragantino | · | 1× | 1× | 3× | · |
| Chapecoense | · | 1× | 1× | 1× | 2× |
 Goiás | · | 1× | · | 7× | 4× |
 Coritiba | · | 1× | · | 2× | 5× |
 Paraná | · | 1× | · | 2× | 2× |
 Mirassol | · | 1× | · | · | · |
 São Caetano | · | 1× | · | · | 1× |
 Bahia | · | · | 2× | 4× | 3× |
 América-MG | · | · | 1× | 1× | 4× |
 Figueirense | · | · | · | 3× | 3× |
 Atlético-GO | · | · | · | 2× | 4× |
 Ceará | · | · | · | 2× | 3× |
 Cuiabá | · | · | · | 2× | 1× |
 Vitória | · | · | · | 2× | 4× |
 Avaí | · | · | · | 1× | 5× |
 Juventude | · | · | · | 1× | 3× |
 Ponte Preta | · | · | · | 1× | 3× |
| Sport | · | · | · | 1× | 5× |
 América-RN | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Brasiliense | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Criciúma | · | · | · | · | 3× |
 CSA | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Grêmio Barueri | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Guarani | · | · | · | · | 2× |
 Ipatinga | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Joinville | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Náutico | · | · | · | · | 2× |
 Paysandu | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Portuguesa | · | · | · | · | 2× |
 Santa Cruz | · | · | · | · | 2× |
 Santo André | · | · | · | · | 1× |
All editions
2026Ongoing
Matchday 34 of 38 · favourite Flamengo 82.3%
2025Finished
Champion Flamengo · 79 pts2024Finished
Champion Botafogo · 79 pts2023Finished
Champion Palmeiras · 70 pts2022Finished
Champion Palmeiras · 81 pts2021Finished
Champion Atletico-MG · 84 pts2020Finished
Champion Flamengo · 71 pts2019Finished
Champion Flamengo · 90 pts2018Finished
Champion Palmeiras · 80 pts2017Finished
Champion Corinthians · 72 pts2016Finished
Champion Palmeiras · 80 pts2015Finished
Champion Corinthians · 81 pts2014Finished
Champion Cruzeiro · 80 pts2013Finished
Champion Cruzeiro · 76 pts2012Finished
Champion Fluminense · 77 pts2011Finished
Champion Corinthians · 71 pts2010Finished
Champion Fluminense · 71 pts2009Finished
Champion Flamengo · 67 pts2008Finished
Champion São Paulo · 75 pts2007Finished
Champion São Paulo · 77 pts2006Finished
Champion São Paulo · 78 pts2005Finished
Champion Corinthians · 81 pts2004Finished
Champion Santos · 89 pts2003Finished
Champion Cruzeiro · 100 pts