Brazilian Série A 2026

Ongoing

Updated through 11/06/2026

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Title race

Flamengo

82.3%

chance to win the title
65 pp ahead of Palmeiras

Flamengo 82.3%Palmeiras 17.7%Others <0.1%

Favorites for Libertadores

Highlights

round 34 complete

Fluminense

34ª

On the rise

+23.8 p.p.

Fluminense passed 75% in the race for a Libertadores spot, rising from 54.7% to 78.5%.

Flamengo

34ª

Duel

With 4 rounds to go, Flamengo sits at 82.3% in the title race.

Botafogo

34ª

Out

Less than 0.01% of hope was left. Now Botafogo can no longer reach Libertadores.

The table's percentages are recalculated after every result and may differ from this analysis, which reflects the moment stated above.

Matches that matter most

where one result moves the probabilities the most

Corinthians×Botafogo

Round 35

For Corinthians, the chance of Relegation goes from 68.8% with a loss to 26.0% with a win.

Vasco×Internacional

Round 35

For Vasco, the chance of Sudamericana goes from 22.8% with a loss to 65.3% with a win.

Grêmio×Bahia

Round 35

For Grêmio, the chance of Relegation goes from 75.9% with a loss to 34.0% with a win.

Cut-off line

how many points each zone should take

In each of the 10,000 simulations we record the points of the last team to get into the zone (for relegation, of the first to stay out). The estimate is the median; the range covers 80% of the simulations.

Zone	Estimate	Range (80%)	In that spot today
Championlast one in	83 pts	81–86	76 (1st, Flamengo)
Libertadoreslast one in	63 pts	61–65	57 (4th, Fluminense)
Libertadores Second Roundlast one in	60 pts	58–63	54 (5th, Athletico-PR)
Sudamericanalast one in	49 pts	47–50	42 (11th, Botafogo)
Relegationfirst one out	43 pts	41–44	38 (16th, Internacional)

Champion: the last team in should finish with about 83 points (81 to 86 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Flamengo, 1st, with 76. Libertadores: the last team in should finish with about 63 points (61 to 65 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Fluminense, 4th, with 57. Libertadores Second Round: the last team in should finish with about 60 points (58 to 63 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Athletico-PR, 5th, with 54. Sudamericana: the last team in should finish with about 49 points (47 to 50 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Botafogo, 11th, with 42. Relegation: the first team out should finish with about 43 points (41 to 44 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Internacional, 16th, with 38.

Standings

probability by zone

Statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.

#	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Champion	Libertadores	Libertadores Second Round	Sudamericana	Relegation
1	Flamengo	76	34	23	7	4	71	29	+42	82.3%	100%	0%	0%	0%
2	Palmeiras	73	34	21	10	3	62	23	+39	17.7%	100%	0%	0%	0%
3	Cruzeiro	60	34	18	6	10	55	48	+7	0%	97.1%	2.7%	0.2%	0%
4	Fluminense	57	34	16	9	9	55	42	+13	0%	78.5%	16.1%	5.4%	0%
5	Athletico-PR	54	34	15	9	10	51	43	+8	0%	13.1%	43.7%	43.2%	0%
6	Bahia	53	34	14	11	9	50	45	+5	0%	9.8%	28.0%	62.2%	0%
7	Atletico-MG	50	34	14	8	12	44	40	+4	0%	1.4%	8.1%	90.5%	0%
8	Red Bull Bragantino	47	34	13	8	13	44	39	+5	0%	<0.1%	0.8%	97.0%	<0.1%
9	Santos	47	34	12	11	11	50	49	+1	0%	<0.1%	0.6%	94.3%	<0.1%
10	São Paulo	44	34	12	8	14	39	39	0	0%	0%	<0.1%	79.6%	<0.1%
11	Botafogo	42	34	11	9	14	46	53	-7	0%	0%	<0.1%	41.6%	1.9%
12	Coritiba	42	34	11	9	14	40	51	-11	0%	0%	<0.1%	18.8%	3.5%
13	Vasco	41	33	11	8	14	43	50	-7	0%	0%	<0.1%	46.7%	2.4%
14	Mirassol	40	34	10	10	14	39	48	-9	0%	0%	0%	9.5%	16.4%
15	Vitória	38	34	10	8	16	35	51	-16	0%	0%	0%	3.2%	40.5%
16	Internacional	38	34	9	11	14	38	42	-4	0%	0%	0%	3.9%	36.0%
17	Corinthians	37	34	9	10	15	36	42	-6	0%	0%	0%	2.3%	45.2%
18	Grêmio	37	34	9	10	15	38	47	-9	0%	0%	0%	1.8%	54.1%
19	Remo	29	34	6	11	17	37	57	-20	0%	0%	0%	0%	>99.9%
20	Chapecoense	21	33	4	9	20	33	68	-35	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%

Champion Libertadores Libertadores Second Round Sudamericana Relegation