Champion
to be champion
87.5pts on average
from 75 to 100
2026/27 · projection~84 (77–92)
English Football League · United Kingdom
Premier League
Prob11 follows 32 editions of Premier League: 1995/96, 1996/97, 1997/98, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2000/01, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05, 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22, 2022/23, 2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26, and 2026/27. Here are the champions, who finished in each zone, how many points each spot took and the turnarounds the probabilities did not see coming.
- Editions
- 32
- Different champions
- 6
- Champion's points (avg.)
- 87.5
In progress · 2026/27Matchday 10 of 38
Title favourite
Arsenal 57.4%Manchester City 16.6%Brighton & Hove Albion 13.0%
View 2026/27 standings Who finished where
Every zone of each edition, as the table finished — a pre-qualified team shows where it actually ended up.
Champion 2025/26
Arsenal
85 points
How the title was decided
- May 19, 2026Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League5 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2024/25
Liverpool
84 points
How the title was decided
- February 23, 2025The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 27, 2025Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League5 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2023/24
Manchester City
91 points
How the title was decided
- May 19, 2024The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2022/23
Manchester City
89 points
How the title was decided
- May 14, 2023The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 20, 2023Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2021/22
Manchester City
93 points
How the title was decided
- May 22, 2022The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2020/21
Manchester City
86 points
How the title was decided
- February 17, 2021The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 11, 2021Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2019/20
Liverpool
99 points
How the title was decided
- December 14, 2019The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- June 25, 2020Title mathematically secured, with 7 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2018/19
Manchester City
98 points
How the title was decided
- May 12, 2019The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2017/18
Manchester City
100 points
How the title was decided
- December 10, 2017The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 15, 2018Title mathematically secured, with 5 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2016/17
Chelsea
93 points
How the title was decided
- April 30, 2017The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 12, 2017Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2015/16
Leicester City
81 points
How the title was decided
- April 25, 2016The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 2, 2016Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2014/15
Chelsea
87 points
How the title was decided
- March 22, 2015The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 3, 2015Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2013/14
Manchester City
86 points
How the title was decided
- May 7, 2014The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 11, 2014The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2012/13
Manchester United
89 points
How the title was decided
- February 3, 2013The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 22, 2013Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2011/12
Manchester City
89 points
How the title was decided
- May 13, 2012The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2010/11
Manchester United
80 points
How the title was decided
- May 8, 2011The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 14, 2011Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2009/10
Chelsea
86 points
How the title was decided
- May 9, 2010The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2008/09
Manchester United
90 points
How the title was decided
- May 10, 2009The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 16, 2009Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2007/08
Manchester United
87 points
How the title was decided
- May 11, 2008The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2006/07
Manchester United
89 points
How the title was decided
- April 28, 2007The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 6, 2007Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2005/06
Chelsea
91 points
How the title was decided
- December 18, 2005The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 29, 2006Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2004/05
Chelsea
95 points
How the title was decided
- January 15, 2005The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 30, 2005Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2003/04
Arsenal
90 points
How the title was decided
- February 21, 2004The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 25, 2004Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2002/03
Manchester United
83 points
How the title was decided
- May 3, 2003The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 4, 2003Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2001/02
Arsenal
87 points
How the title was decided
- April 29, 2002The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 8, 2002Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2000/01
Manchester United
80 points
How the title was decided
- January 1, 2001The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 14, 2001Title mathematically secured, with 5 matches still to play.
Champions League3 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 1999/00
Manchester United
91 points
How the title was decided
- March 25, 2000The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 22, 2000Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League3 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 1998/99
Manchester United
79 points
How the title was decided
- May 16, 1999The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League3 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 1997/98
Arsenal
78 points
How the title was decided
- April 29, 1998The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 3, 1998Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 1996/97
Manchester United
75 points
How the title was decided
- April 19, 1997The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 6, 1997Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 1995/96
Manchester United
82 points
How the title was decided
- May 4, 1996The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League1 team
Relegation3 teams
How many points each spot took
Points of the last team to get into each zone — for relegation, the first team to stay out. Teams pre-qualified (through a cup, for instance) don't count. For the edition in progress, the number is the simulations' projection.
Champions League
to get in
69.9pts on average
from 60 to 82
2026/27 · projection~69 (65–74)
Europa League
to get in
63.3pts on average
from 56 to 71
2026/27 · projection~66 (62–70)
Conference League
to get in
61.2pts on average
from 54 to 65
2026/27 · projection~63 (59–67)
Relegation
to stay up
38pts on average
from 32 to 44
2026/27 · projection~36 (31–40)
| Edition | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 85Arsenal | 60Liverpool | 57Bournemouth | 54Sunderland | 41Tottenham |
| 2024/25 | 84Liverpool | 66Newcastle | 66Aston Villa | 65Nottingham | 38Tottenham |
| 2023/24 | 91Manchester City | 68Aston Villa | 66Tottenham | 63Chelsea | 32Nottingham |
| 2022/23 | 89Manchester City | 71Newcastle | 67Liverpool | 62Brighton & Hove Albion | 36Everton |
| 2021/22 | 93Manchester City | 71Tottenham | 69Arsenal | 58Manchester United | 38Leeds United |
| 2020/21 | 86Manchester City | 67Chelsea | 66Leicester City | 65West Ham | 39Burnley |
| 2019/20 | 99Liverpool | 66Chelsea | 59Tottenham | — | 35Aston Villa |
| 2018/19 | 98Manchester City | 71Tottenham | 66Manchester United | — | 36Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2017/18 | 100Manchester City | 75Liverpool | 63Arsenal | — | 36Southampton |
| 2016/17 | 93Chelsea | 76Liverpool | 69Manchester United | — | 40Watford |
| 2015/16 | 81Leicester City | 66Manchester City | 63Southampton | — | 39Sunderland |
| 2014/15 | 87Chelsea | 70Manchester United | 62Liverpool | — | 38Aston Villa |
| 2013/14 | 86Manchester City | 79Arsenal | 69Tottenham | — | 36West Bromwich Albion |
| 2012/13 | 89Manchester United | 73Arsenal | 63Everton | — | 39Sunderland |
| 2011/12 | 89Manchester City | 69Tottenham | 64Chelsea | — | 37Queens Park Rangers |
| 2010/11 | 80Manchester United | 68Arsenal | 58Liverpool | — | 40Wolverhampton |
| 2009/10 | 86Chelsea | 70Tottenham | 64Aston Villa | — | 35West Ham |
| 2008/09 | 90Manchester United | 72Arsenal | 62Aston Villa | — | 35Hull City |
| 2007/08 | 87Manchester United | 76Liverpool | 60Aston Villa | — | 36Fulham |
| 2006/07 | 89Manchester United | 68Arsenal | 58Everton | — | 38Wigan Athletic |
| 2005/06 | 91Chelsea | 67Arsenal | 63Blackburn Rovers | — | 38Portsmouth |
| 2004/05 | 95Chelsea | 61Everton | 58Bolton Wanderers | — | 34West Bromwich Albion |
| 2003/04 | 90Arsenal | 60Liverpool | 56Aston Villa | — | 39Everton |
| 2002/03 | 83Manchester United | 67Chelsea | 60Blackburn Rovers | — | 44Bolton Wanderers |
| 2001/02 | 87Arsenal | 71Newcastle | 64Chelsea | — | 40Sunderland |
| 2000/01 | 80Manchester United | 69Liverpool | 66Ipswich Town | — | 42Derby County |
| 1999/00 | 91Manchester United | 69Leeds United | 65Chelsea | — | 36Bradford City |
| 1998/99 | 79Manchester United | 75Chelsea | 57West Ham | — | 41Southampton |
| 1997/98 | 78Arsenal | 77Manchester United | 63Chelsea | — | 40Everton |
| 1996/97 | 75Manchester United | 68Newcastle | 68Liverpool | — | 41Coventry City |
| 1995/96 | 82Manchester United | 82Manchester United | 71Liverpool | — | 38Southampton |
Turnarounds
Outcomes the probabilities rated unlikely. A team that missed a zone only because it finished in a better one doesn't count, nor do changes from a pre-qualification activated after the last match (a domestic cup winner taking its continental berth and freeing its league spot, for instance).
Happened against the odds
Sunderland 2025/26had just a 0.2% chance of Conference League (May 13, 2026) and finished there.
0.2%Conference League
West Ham 2020/21had just a 0.5% chance of Conference League (September 21, 2020) and finished there.
0.5%Conference League- Leicester City 2015/16
had just a 0.6% chance of Champion (August 7, 2015) and finished there.
0.6%Champion 
Ipswich Town 2000/01had just a 0.8% chance of Europa League (August 21, 2000) and finished there.
0.8%Europa League- Leicester City 2022/23
the risk of Relegation was down to 1.0% (August 4, 2022), and the team went down.
1.0%Relegation 
Sheffield United 2006/07the risk of Relegation was down to 1.0% (April 30, 2007), and the team went down.
1.0%Relegation
Looked certain, didn't happen
- Leicester City 2019/20
reached a 97.7% chance of Champions League (January 23, 2020) and missed out.
97.7%Champions League - West Ham 2006/07
the risk of Relegation reached 97.6% (March 4, 2007), and the team escaped.
97.6%Relegation 
Fulham 2007/08the risk of Relegation reached 97.5% (April 19, 2008), and the team escaped.
97.5%Relegation
Portsmouth 2005/06the risk of Relegation reached 96.5% (February 25, 2006), and the team escaped.
96.5%Relegation
Aston Villa 2019/20the risk of Relegation reached 96.5% (July 11, 2020), and the team escaped.
96.5%Relegation
West Bromwich Albion 2004/05the risk of Relegation reached 96.2% (March 5, 2005), and the team escaped.
96.2%Relegation
Who did it most
How many times each team finished in each zone across the 31 finished editions Prob11 tracks.
| Team | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 11× | 24× | 3× | 1× | · |
| Manchester City | 8× | 16× | 1× | · | 2× |
| Chelsea | 5× | 19× | 5× | 1× | · |
| Arsenal | 4× | 23× | 5× | · | · |
| Liverpool | 2× | 17× | 9× | · | · |
| Leicester City | 1× | 1× | 2× | · | 4× |
 Tottenham | · | 7× | 8× | · | · |
 Newcastle | · | 5× | 3× | · | 2× |
| Aston Villa | · | 2× | 5× | · | 1× |
 Everton | · | 1× | 5× | · | · |
 Leeds United | · | 1× | 3× | · | 2× |
 Blackburn Rovers | · | · | 2× | · | 2× |
See all 48 teams
| West Ham | · | · | 1× | 1× | 3× |
 Bolton Wanderers | · | · | 1× | · | 3× |
 Bournemouth | · | · | 1× | · | 1× |
| Ipswich Town | · | · | 1× | · | 2× |
 Southampton | · | · | 1× | · | 3× |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | · | · | · | 1× | · |
 Nottingham | · | · | · | 1× | 2× |
| Sunderland | · | · | · | 1× | 4× |
 Barnsley | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Birmingham City | · | · | · | · | 3× |
 Blackpool | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Bradford City | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Burnley | · | · | · | · | 5× |
 Cardiff City | · | · | · | · | 2× |
 Charlton Athletic | · | · | · | · | 2× |
 Coventry City | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Crystal Palace | · | · | · | · | 2× |
 Derby County | · | · | · | · | 2× |
| Fulham | · | · | · | · | 3× |
 Huddersfield Town | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Hull City | · | · | · | · | 3× |
 Luton Town | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Middlesbrough | · | · | · | · | 3× |
 Norwich City | · | · | · | · | 5× |
| Portsmouth | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Queens Park Rangers | · | · | · | · | 3× |
 Reading | · | · | · | · | 2× |
| Sheffield United | · | · | · | · | 3× |
 Sheffield Wednesday | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Stoke City | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Swansea City | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Watford | · | · | · | · | 4× |
| West Bromwich Albion | · | · | · | · | 5× |
 Wigan Athletic | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Wimbledon | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Wolverhampton | · | · | · | · | 3× |
All editions
2026/27Ongoing
Matchday 10 of 38 · favourite Arsenal 57.4%
2025/26Finished
Champion Arsenal · 85 pts2024/25Finished
Champion Liverpool · 84 pts2023/24Finished
Champion Manchester City · 91 pts2022/23Finished
Champion Manchester City · 89 pts2021/22Finished
Champion Manchester City · 93 pts2020/21Finished
Champion Manchester City · 86 pts2019/20Finished
Champion Liverpool · 99 pts2018/19Finished
Champion Manchester City · 98 pts2017/18Finished
Champion Manchester City · 100 pts2016/17Finished
Champion Chelsea · 93 pts2015/16Finished
Champion Leicester City · 81 pts2014/15Finished
Champion Chelsea · 87 pts2013/14Finished
Champion Manchester City · 86 pts2012/13Finished
Champion Manchester United · 89 pts2011/12Finished
Champion Manchester City · 89 pts2010/11Finished
Champion Manchester United · 80 pts2009/10Finished
Champion Chelsea · 86 pts2008/09Finished
Champion Manchester United · 90 pts2007/08Finished
Champion Manchester United · 87 pts2006/07Finished
Champion Manchester United · 89 pts2005/06Finished
Champion Chelsea · 91 pts2004/05Finished
Champion Chelsea · 95 pts2003/04Finished
Champion Arsenal · 90 pts2002/03Finished
Champion Manchester United · 83 pts2001/02Finished
Champion Arsenal · 87 pts2000/01Finished
Champion Manchester United · 80 pts1999/00Finished
Champion Manchester United · 91 pts1998/99Finished
Champion Manchester United · 79 pts1997/98Finished
Champion Arsenal · 78 pts1996/97Finished
Champion Manchester United · 75 pts1995/96Finished
Champion Manchester United · 82 pts