Bournemouth
7ª
0.08% is all the title hope Bournemouth has left.
Premier League 2026/27
OngoingUpdated through 10/19/2026
Favorites for Champions League
Highlights
round 7 completeOut
Coventry City
7ª
−6.1 p.p.
Coventry City dropped below 5% in the race for a Champions League spot, from 10.0% to 3.9%.
Aston Villa
7ª
+41.0 p.p.
Aston Villa has fallen from 48.1% to 7.1% in the relegation fight across the season.
The table's percentages are recalculated after every result and may differ from this analysis, which reflects the moment stated above.
Matches that matter most
where one result moves the probabilities the mostRound 8
For Liverpool, the chance of Champions League goes from 23.0% with a loss to 39.7% with a win.
Round 8
For Chelsea, the chance of Champions League goes from 34.2% with a loss to 49.8% with a win.
Round 8
For Nottingham, the chance of Relegation goes from 48.1% with a loss to 33.1% with a win.
Cut-off line
how many points each zone should takeIn each of the 10,000 simulations we record the points of the last team to get into the zone (for relegation, of the first to stay out). The estimate is the median; the range covers 80% of the simulations.
| Zone | Estimate | Range (80%) | In that spot today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Championlast one in | 74 pts | 68–81 | 21 (1st, Manchester City) |
| Champions Leaguelast one in | 61 pts | 58–65 | 13 (4th, Chelsea) |
| Europa Leaguelast one in | 59 pts | 56–62 | 12 (5th, Liverpool) |
| Conference Leaguelast one in | 57 pts | 55–60 | 10 (6th, Brentford) |
| Relegationfirst one out | 42 pts | 40–45 | 6 (17th, Coventry City) |
Champion: the last team in should finish with about 74 points (68 to 81 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Manchester City, 1st, with 21. Champions League: the last team in should finish with about 61 points (58 to 65 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Chelsea, 4th, with 13. Europa League: the last team in should finish with about 59 points (56 to 62 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Liverpool, 5th, with 12. Conference League: the last team in should finish with about 57 points (55 to 60 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Brentford, 6th, with 10. Relegation: the first team out should finish with about 42 points (40 to 45 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Coventry City, 17th, with 6.
Standings
probability by zoneStatistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
| # | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 21 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 50.9% | 91.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | <0.1% | |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 18 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 20.4% | 76.9% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 0.1% | |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 17.2% | 71.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 13 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 5.0% | 41.6% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 0.9% | |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 12 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.6% | 30.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 1.8% | |
| 6 |  Brentford | 10 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 0.6% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | |
| 7 |  Leeds United | 10 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 0.5% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | |
| 8 |  Everton | 10 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 0.6% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | |
| 9 |  Hull City | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 0.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 15.7% | |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 0.4% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 10.8% | |
| 11 |  Newcastle | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 0.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 20.7% | |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 0.5% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 18.7% | |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 0.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 19.1% | |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 0.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 19.9% | |
| 16 |  Tottenham | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 0.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 18.5% | |
| 17 | Coventry City | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 0.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 20.3% | |
| 18 |  Fulham | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 0.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 23.6% | |
| 19 |  Nottingham | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | <0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 42.4% | |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 56.4% |