Champion
to be champion
86.8pts on average
from 69 to 100
2026/27 · projection~89 (82–95)
Spanish League · Spain
La Liga
Prob11 follows 32 editions of La Liga: 1995/96, 1996/97, 1997/98, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2000/01, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05, 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20, 2020/21, 2021/22, 2022/23, 2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26, and 2026/27. Here are the champions, who finished in each zone, how many points each spot took and the turnarounds the probabilities did not see coming.
- Editions
- 32
- Different champions
- 5
- Champion's points (avg.)
- 86.8
In progress · 2026/27Matchday 12 of 38
Title favourite
Barcelona 49.0%Real Madrid 32.4%Atlético Madrid 16.7%
View 2026/27 standings Who finished where
Every zone of each edition, as the table finished — a pre-qualified team shows where it actually ended up.
Champion 2025/26
Barcelona
94 points
How the title was decided
- April 4, 2026The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 10, 2026Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League5 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2024/25
Barcelona
88 points
How the title was decided
- May 11, 2025The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 15, 2025Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League5 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2023/24
Real Madrid
95 points
How the title was decided
- March 10, 2024The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 4, 2024Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Champion 2022/23
Barcelona
88 points
How the title was decided
- March 12, 2023The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 14, 2023Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2021/22
Real Madrid
86 points
How the title was decided
- March 5, 2022The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 30, 2022Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2020/21
Atlético Madrid
86 points
How the title was decided
- May 22, 2021The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2019/20
Real Madrid
87 points
How the title was decided
- July 13, 2020The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- July 16, 2020Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Champion 2018/19
Barcelona
87 points
How the title was decided
- March 2, 2019The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 4, 2019Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2017/18
Barcelona
93 points
How the title was decided
- March 3, 2018The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 29, 2018Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2016/17
Real Madrid
93 points
How the title was decided
- May 21, 2017The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2015/16
Barcelona
91 points
How the title was decided
- May 14, 2016The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2014/15
Barcelona
94 points
How the title was decided
- May 9, 2015The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 17, 2015Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Champion 2013/14
Atlético Madrid
90 points
How the title was decided
- May 17, 2014The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2012/13
Barcelona
100 points
How the title was decided
- December 22, 2012The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 11, 2013Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2011/12
Real Madrid
100 points
How the title was decided
- April 21, 2012The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 2, 2012Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2010/11
Barcelona
96 points
How the title was decided
- April 2, 2011The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 15, 2011Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2009/10
Barcelona
99 points
How the title was decided
- May 16, 2010The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2008/09
Barcelona
87 points
How the title was decided
- May 2, 2009The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 16, 2009Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2007/08
Real Madrid
85 points
How the title was decided
- April 6, 2008The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 4, 2008Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2006/07
Real Madrid
76 points
How the title was decided
- June 17, 2007The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2005/06
Barcelona
82 points
How the title was decided
- February 26, 2006The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 3, 2006Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2004/05
Barcelona
84 points
How the title was decided
- April 24, 2005The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 21, 2005Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Champion 2003/04
Valencia
77 points
How the title was decided
- May 8, 2004The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 9, 2004Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2002/03
Real Madrid
78 points
How the title was decided
- June 22, 2003The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2001/02
Valencia
75 points
How the title was decided
- April 27, 2002The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 5, 2002Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 2000/01
Real Madrid
80 points
How the title was decided
- April 8, 2001The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 27, 2001Title mathematically secured, with 2 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 1999/00
Deportivo La Coruña
69 points
How the title was decided
- May 19, 2000The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation3 teams
Champion 1998/99
Barcelona
79 points
How the title was decided
- April 18, 1999The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 22, 1999Title mathematically secured, with 3 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation play-off2 teams
Champion 1997/98
Barcelona
74 points
How the title was decided
- March 15, 1998The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 19, 1998Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League2 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation2 teams
Relegation play-off2 teams
Champion 1996/97
Real Madrid
92 points
How the title was decided
- June 1, 1997The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- June 14, 1997Title mathematically secured, with 1 match still to play.
Champions League2 teams
Europa League2 teams
Relegation4 teams
Relegation play-off1 team
Champion 1995/96
Atlético Madrid
87 points
How the title was decided
- May 4, 1996The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- May 25, 1996The title is only secured in the last match.
Champions League1 team
Relegation play-off2 teams
How many points each spot took
Points of the last team to get into each zone — for relegation, the first team to stay out. Teams pre-qualified (through a cup, for instance) don't count. For the edition in progress, the number is the simulations' projection.
Champions League
to get in
68.2pts on average
from 58 to 90
2026/27 · projection~70 (64–76)
Europa League
to get in
61.2pts on average
from 54 to 80
2026/27 · projection~65 (60–70)
Conference League
to get in
58.2pts on average
from 51 to 62
2026/27 · projection~61 (57–66)
Relegation
to stay up
40.3pts on average
from 35 to 45
2026/27 · projection~36 (32–39)
Relegation play-off
to stay up
44.8pts on average
from 40 to 48
| Edition | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | Relegation play-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 94Barcelona | 60Real Betis | 54Celta Vigo | 51Getafe | 42Osasuna | — |
| 2024/25 | 88Barcelona | 70Villarreal | 60Real Betis | 55Celta Vigo | 41Sevilla | — |
| 2023/24 | 95Real Madrid | 76Atlético Madrid | 68Athletic Club | 60Real Sociedad | 38Rayo Vallecano | — |
| 2022/23 | 88Barcelona | 71Real Sociedad | 64Villarreal | 60Real Betis | 41Almería | — |
| 2021/22 | 86Real Madrid | 70Sevilla | 65Real Betis | 62Real Sociedad | 39Cádiz | — |
| 2020/21 | 86Atlético Madrid | 77Sevilla | 62Real Sociedad | 61Real Betis | 36Elche | — |
| 2019/20 | 87Real Madrid | 70Sevilla | 56Real Sociedad | — | 37Celta Vigo | — |
| 2018/19 | 87Barcelona | 61Valencia | 59Sevilla | — | 41Celta Vigo | — |
| 2017/18 | 93Barcelona | 73Valencia | 60Real Betis | — | 43Leganés | — |
| 2016/17 | 93Real Madrid | 72Sevilla | 64Real Sociedad | — | 35Leganés | — |
| 2015/16 | 91Barcelona | 64Villarreal | 60Celta Vigo | — | 39Sporting Gijón | — |
| 2014/15 | 94Barcelona | 77Valencia | 60Villarreal | — | 35Granada | — |
| 2013/14 | 90Atlético Madrid | 70Athletic Club | 59Villarreal | — | 40Almería | — |
| 2012/13 | 100Barcelona | 66Real Sociedad | 57Málaga | — | 37Celta Vigo | — |
| 2011/12 | 100Real Madrid | 58Málaga | 55Levante | — | 42Granada | — |
| 2010/11 | 96Barcelona | 62Villarreal | 58Athletic Club | — | 44Mallorca | — |
| 2009/10 | 99Barcelona | 63Sevilla | 58Getafe | — | 37Málaga | — |
| 2008/09 | 87Barcelona | 67Atlético Madrid | 62Valencia | — | 42Getafe | — |
| 2007/08 | 85Real Madrid | 64Atlético Madrid | 60Racing Santander | — | 43Osasuna | — |
| 2006/07 | 76Real Madrid | 66Valencia | 60Real Zaragoza | — | 40Athletic Club | — |
| 2005/06 | 82Barcelona | 68Osasuna | 64Celta Vigo | — | 40Racing Santander | — |
| 2004/05 | 84Barcelona | 62Real Betis | 60Sevilla | — | 39Mallorca | — |
| 2003/04 | 77Valencia | 70Real Madrid | 55Sevilla | — | 42Racing Santander | — |
| 2002/03 | 78Real Madrid | 61Celta Vigo | 56Barcelona | — | 43Espanyol | — |
| 2001/02 | 75Valencia | 64Barcelona | 59Real Betis | — | 42Osasuna | — |
| 2000/01 | 80Real Madrid | 63Barcelona | 59Celta Vigo | — | 42Real Zaragoza | — |
| 1999/00 | 69Deportivo La Coruña | 63Real Zaragoza | 61Deportivo Alavés | — | 45Numancia | — |
| 1998/99 | 79Barcelona | 65Valencia | 63Deportivo La Coruña | — | 36Villarreal | 40Deportivo Alavés |
| 1997/98 | 74Barcelona | 65Athletic Club | 63Real Madrid | — | 40Real Oviedo | 45Tenerife |
| 1996/97 | 92Real Madrid | 90Barcelona | 77Real Betis | — | 45Rayo Vallecano | 48Real Oviedo |
| 1995/96 | 87Atlético Madrid | 87Atlético Madrid | 80Barcelona | — | 42Albacete | 46Sporting Gijón |
Turnarounds
Outcomes the probabilities rated unlikely. A team that missed a zone only because it finished in a better one doesn't count, nor do changes from a pre-qualification activated after the last match (a domestic cup winner taking its continental berth and freeing its league spot, for instance).
Happened against the odds
Villarreal 2006/07had just a 0.1% chance of Europa League (April 21, 2007) and finished there.
0.1%Europa League
Real Betis 2008/09the risk of Relegation was down to 0.3% (May 17, 2009), and the team went down.
0.3%Relegation
Real Zaragoza 2007/08the risk of Relegation was down to 0.4% (November 3, 2007), and the team went down.
0.4%Relegation
Girona 2025/26the risk of Relegation was down to 0.5% (April 10, 2026), and the team went down.
0.5%Relegation
Granada 2021/22the risk of Relegation was down to 0.6% (January 8, 2022), and the team went down.
0.6%Relegation
Celta Vigo 2003/04the risk of Relegation was down to 0.7% (August 29, 2003), and the team went down.
0.7%Relegation
Looked certain, didn't happen
Mallorca 2004/05the risk of Relegation reached 97.9% (April 23, 2005), and the team escaped.
97.9%Relegation
Real Sociedad 2013/14reached a 96.6% chance of Europa League (May 4, 2014) and missed out.
96.6%Europa League- Granada 2014/15
the risk of Relegation reached 96.4% (May 1, 2015), and the team escaped.
96.4%Relegation - Real Zaragoza 2011/12
the risk of Relegation reached 95.2% (March 17, 2012), and the team escaped.
95.2%Relegation 
Espanyol 2003/04the risk of Relegation reached 94.6% (December 21, 2003), and the team escaped.
94.6%Relegation- Celta Vigo 2012/13
the risk of Relegation reached 94.0% (May 19, 2013), and the team escaped.
94.0%Relegation
Who did it most
How many times each team finished in each zone across the 31 finished editions Prob11 tracks.
| Team | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | Relegation play-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 15× | 29× | 2× | · | · | · |
| Real Madrid | 10× | 28× | 2× | · | · | · |
| Atlético Madrid | 3× | 17× | 1× | · | 1× | · |
| Valencia | 2× | 12× | 5× | · | · | · |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 1× | 5× | 2× | · | 3× | · |
 Sevilla | · | 7× | 8× | · | 2× | · |
| Villarreal | · | 6× | 8× | · | 1× | 1× |
| Real Sociedad | · | 3× | 4× | 2× | 1× | · |
 Athletic Club | · | 3× | 4× | · | · | · |
| Real Betis | · | 2× | 5× | 2× | 3× | · |
| Mallorca | · | 2× | 1× | · | 3× | · |
| Celta Vigo | · | 1× | 6× | 1× | 2× | · |
See all 47 teams
 Málaga | · | 1× | 1× | · | 2× | · |
| Real Zaragoza | · | 1× | 1× | · | 3× | · |
| Girona | · | 1× | · | · | 2× | · |
 Osasuna | · | 1× | · | · | 2× | · |
 Getafe | · | · | 2× | 1× | 1× | · |
 Deportivo Alavés | · | · | 1× | · | 3× | · |
| Espanyol | · | · | 1× | · | 2× | · |
 Levante | · | · | 1× | · | 4× | · |
 Racing Santander | · | · | 1× | · | 2× | · |
 Albacete | · | · | · | · | 1× | 1× |
 Almería | · | · | · | · | 3× | · |
 Cádiz | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Compostela | · | · | · | · | · | 1× |
 Córdoba | · | · | · | · | 1× | · |
 Eibar | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Elche | · | · | · | · | 1× | · |
 Extremadura | · | · | · | · | 1× | 1× |
 Gimnàstic de Tarragona | · | · | · | · | 1× | · |
| Granada | · | · | · | · | 3× | · |
 Hércules | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Huesca | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Las Palmas | · | · | · | · | 3× | · |
 Leganés | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Logroñés | · | · | · | · | 1× | · |
 Mérida | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Numancia | · | · | · | · | 3× | · |
 Rayo Vallecano | · | · | · | · | 3× | 2× |
 Real Murcia | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Real Oviedo | · | · | · | · | 2× | 1× |
 Real Valladolid | · | · | · | · | 6× | · |
 Recreativo Huelva | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Salamanca | · | · | · | · | 2× | · |
 Sporting Gijón | · | · | · | · | 3× | · |
 Tenerife | · | · | · | · | 3× | · |
 Xerez | · | · | · | · | 1× | · |
All editions
2026/27Ongoing
Matchday 12 of 38 · favourite Barcelona 49.0%
2025/26Finished
Champion Barcelona · 94 pts2024/25Finished
Champion Barcelona · 88 pts2023/24Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 95 pts2022/23Finished
Champion Barcelona · 88 pts2021/22Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 86 pts2020/21Finished
Champion Atlético Madrid · 86 pts2019/20Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 87 pts2018/19Finished
Champion Barcelona · 87 pts2017/18Finished
Champion Barcelona · 93 pts2016/17Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 93 pts2015/16Finished
Champion Barcelona · 91 pts2014/15Finished
Champion Barcelona · 94 pts2013/14Finished
Champion Atlético Madrid · 90 pts2012/13Finished
Champion Barcelona · 100 pts2011/12Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 100 pts2010/11Finished
Champion Barcelona · 96 pts2009/10Finished
Champion Barcelona · 99 pts2008/09Finished
Champion Barcelona · 87 pts2007/08Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 85 pts2006/07Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 76 pts2005/06Finished
Champion Barcelona · 82 pts2004/05Finished
Champion Barcelona · 84 pts2003/04Finished
Champion Valencia · 77 pts2002/03Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 78 pts2001/02Finished
Champion Valencia · 75 pts2000/01Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 80 pts1999/00Finished
Champion Deportivo La Coruña · 69 pts1998/99Finished
Champion Barcelona · 79 pts1997/98Finished
Champion Barcelona · 74 pts1996/97Finished
Champion Real Madrid · 92 pts1995/96Finished
Champion Atlético Madrid · 87 pts