Real Sociedad
9ª
+1.8 p.p.
Real Sociedad has risen for 3 straight rounds in the title race, gaining 1.8 pp.
La Liga 2026/27
OngoingUpdated through 10/21/2026
Favorites for Champions League
Highlights
round 9 completeOn the rise
La Liga
9ª
The race in the relegation fight is the most open: 12 teams between 10.1% and 62.9%.
Osasuna
9ª
+20.4 p.p.
Osasuna's relegation risk has dropped 20.4 pp over the last 5 rounds, from 30.2% to 9.8%.
The table's percentages are recalculated after every result and may differ from this analysis, which reflects the moment stated above.
Matches that matter most
where one result moves the probabilities the mostRound 10
For Barcelona, the chance of Champion goes from 48.8% with a loss to 67.3% with a win.
Round 10
For Real Betis, the chance of Champions League goes from 39.6% with a loss to 57.6% with a win.
Round 10
For Racing Santander, the chance of Relegation goes from 42.2% with a loss to 25.4% with a win.
Cut-off line
how many points each zone should takeIn each of the 10,000 simulations we record the points of the last team to get into the zone (for relegation, of the first to stay out). The estimate is the median; the range covers 80% of the simulations.
| Zone | Estimate | Range (80%) | In that spot today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Championlast one in | 76 pts | 70–83 | 27 (1st, Barcelona) |
| Champions Leaguelast one in | 63 pts | 59–67 | 19 (4th, Real Betis) |
| Europa Leaguelast one in | 60 pts | 57–64 | 16 (5th, Real Sociedad) |
| Conference Leaguelast one in | 58 pts | 55–61 | 14 (6th, Sevilla) |
| Relegationfirst one out | 42 pts | 39–44 | 8 (17th, Racing Santander) |
Champion: the last team in should finish with about 76 points (70 to 83 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Barcelona, 1st, with 27. Champions League: the last team in should finish with about 63 points (59 to 67 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Real Betis, 4th, with 19. Europa League: the last team in should finish with about 60 points (57 to 64 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Real Sociedad, 5th, with 16. Conference League: the last team in should finish with about 58 points (55 to 61 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Sevilla, 6th, with 14. Relegation: the first team out should finish with about 42 points (39 to 44 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Racing Santander, 17th, with 8.
Standings
probability by zoneStatistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
| # | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 27 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | +30 | 58.8% | 96.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | <0.1% | |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 22 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20.1% | 83.5% | 7.7% | 3.8% | <0.1% | |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 21 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 12.4% | 74.7% | 9.7% | 5.7% | <0.1% | |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 19 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 4.0% | 47.6% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 16 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 3.6% | 44.8% | 15.6% | 11.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 0.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 4.2% | |
| 7 |  Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | <0.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 17.5% | |
| 8 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 0.3% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 4.1% | |
| 9 | Osasuna | 11 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 0.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 9.8% | |
| 10 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 0.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 12.9% | |
| 11 |  Levante | 10 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 0.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 12.9% | |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 0.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 10.1% | |
| 13 |  Getafe | 9 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | <0.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 18.9% | |
| 14 |  Villarreal | 9 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 13.8% | |
| 15 |  Athletic Club | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 0.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 11.3% | |
| 16 |  Espanyol | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | <0.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 29.9% | |
| 17 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 25 | -12 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 33.5% | |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | <0.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 22.3% | |
| 19 |  Valencia | 6 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | <0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 35.1% | |
| 20 |  Málaga | 4 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 62.9% |