Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: São Paulo beat Grêmio with a 22.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 28 (before the first match) against those on October 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 32.3% | 53.9% | +21.6 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 39.9% | 26.3% | −13.6 |
| Chapecoense | Relegation | 39.3% | 51.9% | +12.6 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 74.7% | 64.1% | −10.5 |
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 66.0% | 55.6% | −10.5 |
| Botafogo | Relegation | 33.0% | 43.0% | +10.0 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 56.0% | 46.9% | −9.0 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 12.7% | 21.2% | +8.5 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 61.7% | 53.5% | −8.2 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 32.6% | 25.1% | −7.6 |
