Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Ipswich Town beat Everton with a 17.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 24 (before the first match) against those on October 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | Relegation | 36.8% | 19.2% | −17.5 |
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 22.6% | 34.6% | +12.0 |
| Liverpool | Champions League | 30.5% | 18.6% | −11.8 |
| Manchester United | Champion | 41.3% | 30.9% | −10.4 |
| Derby County | Relegation | 34.7% | 44.6% | +10.0 |
| Everton | Relegation | 16.5% | 26.3% | +9.8 |
| Manchester United | Champions League | 72.7% | 65.0% | −7.7 |
| Southampton | Relegation | 13.7% | 21.1% | +7.4 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 43.4% | 50.5% | +7.2 |
| Middlesbrough | Relegation | 14.7% | 7.8% | −6.9 |
