Juventude
34ª
Just 0.1 pp separate Juventude (84.7%) and Novorizontino (84.6%) in the race for a Promotion spot.
Brazilian Série B 2026
OngoingUpdated through 10/20/2026
Favorites for Promotion
Highlights
round 34 completeDuel
Brazilian Série B
34ª
With 4 rounds left, none of the 4 Promotion berths is settled.
Vila Nova
34ª
The race in the race for a Promotion spot is down to Vila Nova (91.9%) and Juventude (84.7%).
The table's percentages are recalculated after every result and may differ from this analysis, which reflects the moment stated above.
Matches that matter most
where one result moves the probabilities the mostRound 35
For Criciúma, the chance of Promotion goes from 48.4% with a loss to 81.9% with a win.
Round 35
For Vila Nova, the chance of Champion goes from 23.2% with a loss to 55.9% with a win.
Round 35
For Fortaleza, the chance of Promotion goes from 53.8% with a loss to 85.4% with a win.
Cut-off line
how many points each zone should takeIn each of the 10,000 simulations we record the points of the last team to get into the zone (for relegation, of the first to stay out). The estimate is the median; the range covers 80% of the simulations.
| Zone | Estimate | Range (80%) | In that spot today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Championlast one in | 70 pts | 68–72 | 62 (1st, Vila Nova) |
| Promotionlast one in | 65 pts | 63–66 | 60 (4th, Fortaleza) |
| Relegationfirst one out | 46 pts | 44–48 | 43 (16th, Ceará) |
Champion: the last team in should finish with about 70 points (68 to 72 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Vila Nova, 1st, with 62. Promotion: the last team in should finish with about 65 points (63 to 66 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Fortaleza, 4th, with 60. Relegation: the first team out should finish with about 46 points (44 to 48 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Ceará, 16th, with 43.
Standings
probability by zoneStatistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
| # | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Champion | Promotion | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 62 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 38.1% | 91.9% | 0% | |
| 2 |  Novorizontino | 61 | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 22.1% | 84.6% | 0% | |
| 3 | Juventude | 61 | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 41 | 23 | +18 | 18.8% | 84.7% | 0% | |
| 4 |  Fortaleza | 60 | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 29 | +12 | 12.2% | 70.8% | 0% | |
| 5 |  Criciúma | 59 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 8.8% | 63.0% | 0% | |
| 6 |  Atlético-GO | 54 | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 42 | 32 | +10 | <0.1% | 3.9% | 0% | |
| 7 |  CRB | 52 | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 51 | 48 | +3 | <0.1% | 1.0% | 0% | |
| 8 |  Sport | 51 | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 45 | 37 | +8 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0% | |
| 9 |  Goiás | 49 | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| 10 |  Operário-PR | 48 | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| 11 |  Cuiabá | 47 | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 |  São Bernardo | 46 | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 0% | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 13 |  Botafogo-SP | 44 | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 14 |  Athletic | 44 | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 0% | 0% | 2.8% | |
| 15 |  Náutico | 43 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 0% | 0% | 8.5% | |
| 16 |  Ceará | 43 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 0% | 0% | 4.5% | |
| 17 |  Avaí | 37 | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 0% | 0% | 82.6% | |
| 18 |  Londrina | 32 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 0% | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 19 |  América-MG | 20 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 54 | -32 | 0% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 14 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 74 | -55 | 0% | 0% | 100% |