Amazonas
Volta Redonda
PaysanduChampion
to be champion
68pts on average
68 in the edition
2026 · projection~70 (68–72)
Brazilian Championship · Brazil
Brazilian Série B
Prob11 follows 2 editions of Brazilian Série B: 2025 and 2026. Here are the champions, who finished in each zone, how many points each spot took and the turnarounds the probabilities did not see coming.
- Editions
- 2
- Different champions
- 1
- Champion's points (avg.)
- 68
In progress · 2026Matchday 34 of 38
Title favourite
Vila Nova 38.1%Novorizontino 22.1%Juventude 18.8%
View 2026 standings Who finished where
Every zone of each edition, as the table finished — a pre-qualified team shows where it actually ended up.
Champion 2025
Coritiba
68 points
How the title was decided
- November 23, 2025The title is only secured in the last match.
Promotion4 teams
Relegation4 teams
How many points each spot took
Points of the last team to get into each zone — for relegation, the first team to stay out. Teams pre-qualified (through a cup, for instance) don't count. For the edition in progress, the number is the simulations' projection.
Promotion
to get in
62pts on average
62 in the edition
2026 · projection~65 (63–66)
Relegation
to stay up
42pts on average
42 in the edition
2026 · projection~46 (44–48)
| Edition | Champion | Promotion | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 68Coritiba | 62Remo | 42Botafogo-SP |
Turnarounds
Outcomes the probabilities rated unlikely. A team that missed a zone only because it finished in a better one doesn't count, nor do changes from a pre-qualification activated after the last match (a domestic cup winner taking its continental berth and freeing its league spot, for instance).
Happened against the odds
Athletico-PR 2025had just a 0.9% chance of Promotion (August 18, 2025) and finished there.
0.9%Promotion- Coritiba 2025
had just a 1.2% chance of Champion (May 10, 2025) and finished there.
1.2%Champion 
Remo 2025had just a 2.0% chance of Promotion (September 27, 2025) and finished there.
2.0%Promotion
Chapecoense 2025had just a 2.1% chance of Promotion (April 12, 2025) and finished there.
2.1%Promotion
Ferroviária 2025the risk of Relegation was down to 3.0% (August 23, 2025), and the team went down.
3.0%Relegation
Looked certain, didn't happen
Goiás 2025reached a 92.9% chance of Promotion (July 19, 2025) and missed out.
92.9%Promotion
Criciúma 2025reached a 89.9% chance of Promotion (September 25, 2025) and missed out.
89.9%Promotion
Botafogo-SP 2025the risk of Relegation reached 87.8% (October 7, 2025), and the team escaped.
87.8%Relegation
Novorizontino 2025reached a 81.1% chance of Promotion (June 21, 2025) and missed out.
81.1%Promotion
América-MG 2025the risk of Relegation reached 81.0% (September 1, 2025), and the team escaped.
81.0%Relegation
Athletic 2025the risk of Relegation reached 78.9% (June 13, 2025), and the team escaped.
78.9%Relegation