Matchday 34 of 38
Most at risk · Relegation
Brazil
Brazilian Championship
- Divisions
- 2
- Ongoing
- 2
Overview
2 divisions in progress: where each one stands, the most open races and the matches that move the probabilities the most.
Matchday 37 of 38
Most at risk · Relegation
Most open races
The zones whose outcome is most undecided, across all divisions: the more teams with a real chance per spot, the more open the race.
Libertadores Second RoundBrazilian Série A 2026
3teams with a chance between 10% and 90% · 1 spot
Libertadores Second Round in Brazilian Série A: Athletico-PR, Bahia, and Fluminense are fighting for the spot.
RelegationBrazilian Série A 2026
5teams with a chance between 10% and 90% · 4 spots
Relegation in Brazilian Série A: Grêmio, Corinthians, Vitória, Internacional, and Mirassol are fighting for the 4 spots.
ChampionBrazilian Série B 2026
2teams with a chance between 10% and 90% · 1 spot
Champion in Brazilian Série B: Novorizontino and Juventude are fighting for the spot.
Matches that matter most
where one result moves the probabilities the most
Brazilian Série B · Round 38
For Criciúma, the chance of Promotion goes from 21.7% with a loss to >99.9% with a win.
Brazilian Série B · Round 38
For Fortaleza, the chance of Promotion goes from <0.1% with a loss to 58.0% with a win.
Brazilian Série A · Round 35
For Corinthians, the chance of Relegation goes from 68.8% with a loss to 26.0% with a win.
Highlights
what changed in the probabilities
Flamengo
Brazilian Série A · 2026
With 4 rounds to go, Flamengo sits at 82.3% in the title race.
Fluminense
Brazilian Série A · 2026
+23.8 p.p.
Fluminense passed 75% in the race for a Libertadores spot, rising from 54.7% to 78.5%.
Ceará
Brazilian Série B · 2026
+10.4 p.p.
Without kicking a ball, Ceará went from 2.8% to 13.2% in the relegation fight.
