Vila Nova
Vila Nova sits 1st in the table, with 62 points from 34 matches. The main open race is Champion: 38.1%. Over the last 5 updates, that chance has fallen by 4.6 percentage points. Over the season it has ranged between 1.7% and 49.2%. Other objectives with a real chance: Promotion (91.9%). Next match: against São Bernardo, away, in round 35. A win takes the chance of Champion to 55.9%; a loss, to 23.2%.
Qualification probabilities
Current situationZone trends
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Show history as a table
| Date | Champion | Promotion | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/20/2026 | 38.1% | 91.9% | <0.1% |
| 10/19/2026 | 39.4% | 91.9% | <0.1% |
| 10/18/2026 | 36.8% | 91.5% | <0.1% |
| 10/17/2026 | 43.7% | 94.6% | <0.1% |
| 10/16/2026 | 41.4% | 94.4% | <0.1% |
| 10/13/2026 | 42.7% | 95.5% | <0.1% |
| 10/12/2026 | 43.1% | 95.5% | <0.1% |
| 10/11/2026 | 47.8% | 96.9% | <0.1% |
| 10/08/2026 | 27.5% | 87.8% | <0.1% |
| 10/07/2026 | 29.3% | 86.4% | <0.1% |
| 10/06/2026 | 46.0% | 91.3% | <0.1% |
| 10/03/2026 | 46.2% | 91.3% | <0.1% |
| 10/02/2026 | 32.1% | 81.4% | <0.1% |
| 10/01/2026 | 42.7% | 86.4% | <0.1% |
| 09/29/2026 | 42.9% | 86.5% | <0.1% |
| 09/28/2026 | 43.8% | 87.6% | <0.1% |
| 09/27/2026 | 49.2% | 89.4% | <0.1% |
| 09/26/2026 | 46.6% | 90.3% | <0.1% |
| 09/25/2026 | 47.5% | 91.2% | <0.1% |
| 09/22/2026 | 32.0% | 78.9% | <0.1% |
| 09/20/2026 | 32.4% | 79.8% | <0.1% |
| 09/19/2026 | 32.9% | 78.7% | <0.1% |
| 09/18/2026 | 28.8% | 75.7% | <0.1% |
| 09/16/2026 | 14.8% | 58.0% | <0.1% |
| 09/15/2026 | 14.8% | 59.2% | <0.1% |
| 09/14/2026 | 20.1% | 65.2% | <0.1% |
| 09/13/2026 | 19.7% | 65.1% | <0.1% |
| 09/11/2026 | 11.7% | 58.6% | <0.1% |
| 09/10/2026 | 12.3% | 58.1% | <0.1% |
| 09/09/2026 | 6.7% | 42.8% | <0.1% |
| 09/08/2026 | 8.4% | 43.4% | <0.1% |
| 09/06/2026 | 8.6% | 45.8% | <0.1% |
| 09/05/2026 | 8.6% | 46.1% | <0.1% |
| 09/04/2026 | 9.2% | 49.2% | <0.1% |
| 09/03/2026 | 22.8% | 69.7% | <0.1% |
| 09/01/2026 | 22.0% | 69.6% | <0.1% |
| 08/31/2026 | 18.5% | 69.1% | <0.1% |
| 08/30/2026 | 18.4% | 67.9% | <0.1% |
| 08/29/2026 | 9.2% | 51.6% | <0.1% |
| 08/28/2026 | 9.0% | 51.8% | 0.1% |
| 08/25/2026 | 10.4% | 53.3% | 0.1% |
| 08/24/2026 | 12.3% | 52.9% | 0.1% |
| 08/23/2026 | 13.0% | 55.0% | <0.1% |
| 08/22/2026 | 14.8% | 62.9% | 0.1% |
| 08/20/2026 | 14.6% | 63.0% | 0.1% |
| 08/19/2026 | 13.7% | 62.6% | 0.1% |
| 08/18/2026 | 7.6% | 44.9% | 0.1% |
| 08/16/2026 | 7.6% | 45.2% | 0.1% |
| 08/15/2026 | 7.9% | 43.3% | 0.1% |
| 08/14/2026 | 2.7% | 20.4% | 0.9% |
| 08/11/2026 | 2.6% | 21.1% | 1.0% |
| 08/10/2026 | 2.9% | 21.9% | 1.2% |
| 08/09/2026 | 2.9% | 22.0% | 1.5% |
| 08/08/2026 | 2.2% | 20.1% | 1.5% |
| 08/07/2026 | 5.3% | 35.9% | 0.5% |
| 07/29/2026 | 4.8% | 34.0% | 0.2% |
| 07/28/2026 | 4.7% | 35.8% | 0.3% |
| 07/27/2026 | 5.5% | 37.4% | 0.5% |
| 07/26/2026 | 10.7% | 54.2% | 0.1% |
| 07/24/2026 | 8.5% | 52.7% | 0.1% |
| 07/23/2026 | 7.5% | 50.7% | 0.1% |
| 07/22/2026 | 7.7% | 51.5% | 0.1% |
| 07/21/2026 | 3.0% | 32.1% | 0.5% |
| 07/18/2026 | 3.7% | 31.3% | 0.4% |
| 07/17/2026 | 9.0% | 44.3% | 0.2% |
| 07/16/2026 | 9.7% | 45.1% | 0.2% |
| 07/13/2026 | 9.5% | 46.0% | 0.3% |
| 07/12/2026 | 9.5% | 46.1% | 0.3% |
| 07/10/2026 | 8.0% | 41.3% | 0.2% |
| 07/08/2026 | 17.6% | 59.9% | 0.1% |
| 07/07/2026 | 19.2% | 61.3% | 0.1% |
| 07/06/2026 | 19.1% | 61.6% | 0.1% |
| 07/05/2026 | 11.1% | 45.0% | 0.3% |
| 07/04/2026 | 10.3% | 43.7% | 0.4% |
| 07/03/2026 | 12.4% | 44.6% | 0.5% |
| 07/02/2026 | 13.0% | 46.8% | 0.5% |
| 06/30/2026 | 14.2% | 48.3% | 0.4% |
| 06/28/2026 | 13.8% | 48.7% | 0.4% |
| 06/27/2026 | 14.8% | 52.8% | 0.4% |
| 06/26/2026 | 15.9% | 52.8% | 0.4% |
| 06/25/2026 | 32.2% | 72.1% | 0.1% |
| 06/23/2026 | 31.5% | 72.6% | 0.2% |
| 06/22/2026 | 33.3% | 72.5% | 0.1% |
| 06/21/2026 | 36.0% | 74.8% | 0.1% |
| 06/20/2026 | 32.4% | 73.8% | 0.1% |
| 06/19/2026 | 21.2% | 59.2% | 0.4% |
| 06/16/2026 | 20.6% | 58.3% | 0.2% |
| 06/14/2026 | 17.4% | 53.3% | 0.2% |
| 06/12/2026 | 28.9% | 70.9% | 0.1% |
| 06/11/2026 | 29.1% | 69.5% | <0.1% |
| 06/10/2026 | 27.6% | 69.2% | 0.1% |
| 06/09/2026 | 28.1% | 70.6% | 0.1% |
| 06/08/2026 | 27.4% | 70.6% | <0.1% |
| 06/07/2026 | 21.4% | 62.7% | 0.1% |
| 06/06/2026 | 23.3% | 62.3% | 0.2% |
| 06/05/2026 | 24.3% | 62.9% | 0.2% |
| 06/01/2026 | 23.0% | 64.2% | 0.2% |
| 05/31/2026 | 23.4% | 64.6% | 0.1% |
| 05/30/2026 | 14.1% | 49.0% | 0.4% |
| 05/25/2026 | 14.1% | 50.2% | 0.7% |
| 05/24/2026 | 13.5% | 49.7% | 0.7% |
| 05/23/2026 | 9.4% | 37.5% | 2.2% |
| 05/22/2026 | 10.0% | 39.9% | 2.5% |
| 05/18/2026 | 11.1% | 40.6% | 2.5% |
| 05/17/2026 | 11.7% | 41.7% | 2.3% |
| 05/16/2026 | 4.1% | 21.3% | 7.5% |
| 05/12/2026 | 3.4% | 21.2% | 7.9% |
| 05/10/2026 | 3.9% | 22.1% | 8.1% |
| 05/09/2026 | 3.6% | 21.2% | 8.6% |
| 05/04/2026 | 10.4% | 38.7% | 3.2% |
| 05/03/2026 | 14.4% | 47.3% | 1.8% |
| 05/02/2026 | 15.6% | 48.7% | 1.9% |
| 04/27/2026 | 16.9% | 49.2% | 2.1% |
| 04/26/2026 | 16.4% | 48.6% | 2.0% |
| 04/25/2026 | 24.4% | 60.3% | 1.3% |
| 04/24/2026 | 24.5% | 59.8% | 1.1% |
| 04/23/2026 | 24.6% | 60.6% | 1.4% |
| 04/19/2026 | 23.6% | 59.9% | 1.3% |
| 04/18/2026 | 21.8% | 57.3% | 1.6% |
| 04/12/2026 | 13.5% | 42.4% | 3.1% |
| 04/11/2026 | 14.1% | 44.1% | 3.2% |
| 04/10/2026 | 6.1% | 27.3% | 7.1% |
| 04/07/2026 | 6.4% | 26.6% | 7.2% |
| 04/05/2026 | 6.5% | 28.1% | 6.6% |
| 04/04/2026 | 4.4% | 24.6% | 6.6% |
| 04/02/2026 | 1.7% | 11.5% | 20.1% |
| 04/01/2026 | 1.8% | 11.2% | 22.4% |
| 03/31/2026 | 2.6% | 13.6% | 19.6% |
| 03/22/2026 | 2.5% | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| 03/21/2026 | 3.4% | 15.8% | 22.2% |
What the next match is worth
Vila Nova's chance of each objective depending on the result against São Bernardo
| Objective | Now | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion | 38.1% | 55.9% | 29.7% | 23.2% |
| Promotion | 91.9% | 98.2% | 91.0% | 84.5% |
Computed from the same 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season: we split the simulations by this match's result and count where the team finished in each case.
