Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Bahia beat Botafogo with a 21.2% chance and Atletico-MG beat Goiás with a 24.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 14 (before the first match) against those on September 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | Relegation | 55.1% | 39.1% | −16.0 |
| Botafogo | Relegation | 20.9% | 32.4% | +11.5 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 74.3% | 85.3% | +11.0 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 46.3% | 35.8% | −10.5 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 58.9% | 49.7% | −9.1 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 5.2% | 12.7% | +7.5 |
| São Paulo | Champion | 17.2% | 9.9% | −7.3 |
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 57.9% | 65.0% | +7.1 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 26.8% | 33.0% | +6.2 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores Second Round | 6.2% | 12.1% | +5.9 |
