Real Madrid
Real Madrid sits 3rd in the table, with 21 points from 9 matches. The main open race is Champion: 12.4%. That chance has barely moved over the last 5 updates. Over the season it has ranged between 4.0% and 27.2%. Other objectives with a real chance: Champions League (74.7%), Europa League (9.7%), and Conference League (5.7%). Next match: against Barcelona, away, in round 10. A win takes the chance of Champion to 19.4%; a loss, to 7.8%.
Qualification probabilities
Current situationZone trends
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Show history as a table
| Date | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/21/2026 | 12.4% | 74.7% | 9.7% | 5.7% | <0.1% |
| 10/19/2026 | 12.1% | 74.9% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 0.1% |
| 10/18/2026 | 12.2% | 74.2% | 9.8% | 6.0% | <0.1% |
| 10/17/2026 | 8.4% | 64.8% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 0.1% |
| 10/16/2026 | 9.7% | 62.9% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 0.2% |
| 10/12/2026 | 9.9% | 62.7% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 0.1% |
| 10/11/2026 | 9.7% | 61.3% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 0.1% |
| 10/10/2026 | 10.4% | 62.5% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 0.1% |
| 10/09/2026 | 6.9% | 46.9% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 0.6% |
| 09/20/2026 | 6.8% | 45.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 0.7% |
| 09/19/2026 | 15.8% | 69.5% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 0.2% |
| 09/18/2026 | 16.5% | 65.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| 09/17/2026 | 17.3% | 66.2% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 0.1% |
| 09/16/2026 | 18.6% | 66.8% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 0.1% |
| 09/15/2026 | 21.1% | 67.9% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 0.1% |
| 09/14/2026 | 13.9% | 54.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 0.3% |
| 09/13/2026 | 15.7% | 56.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 0.4% |
| 09/12/2026 | 16.8% | 55.6% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 0.4% |
| 09/11/2026 | 7.7% | 37.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 1.3% |
| 09/07/2026 | 8.8% | 39.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 1.4% |
| 09/06/2026 | 8.6% | 39.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 1.1% |
| 09/05/2026 | 9.5% | 39.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 1.7% |
| 09/04/2026 | 9.1% | 39.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 1.4% |
| 09/03/2026 | 24.1% | 64.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 0.3% |
| 08/31/2026 | 24.1% | 64.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 0.3% |
| 08/30/2026 | 27.2% | 65.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 0.4% |
| 08/29/2026 | 20.4% | 55.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 0.9% |
| 08/28/2026 | 17.1% | 53.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 0.7% |
| 08/27/2026 | 18.3% | 55.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 0.7% |
| 08/26/2026 | 20.5% | 57.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 0.8% |
| 08/25/2026 | 12.1% | 41.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% |
| 08/24/2026 | 12.5% | 42.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| 08/23/2026 | 12.4% | 41.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| 08/22/2026 | 12.7% | 42.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| 08/21/2026 | 4.0% | 19.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 11.4% |
| 08/20/2026 | 4.2% | 19.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 12.4% |
| 08/19/2026 | 4.1% | 19.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 12.5% |
| 08/17/2026 | 4.5% | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 12.8% |
| 08/16/2026 | 4.5% | 19.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 13.3% |
| 08/15/2026 | 4.4% | 18.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 14.0% |
What the next match is worth
Real Madrid's chance of each objective depending on the result against Barcelona
| Objective | Now | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion | 12.4% | 19.4% | 11.5% | 7.8% |
| Champions League | 74.7% | 80.5% | 73.3% | 69.5% |
| Europa League | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.2% |
| Conference League | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% |
Computed from the same 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season: we split the simulations by this match's result and count where the team finished in each case.
