Real Madrid
Real Madrid sits 3rd in the table, with 21 points from 9 matches. The main open race is Champion: 12.4%. That chance has barely moved over the last 5 updates. Over the season it has ranged between 6.7% and 39.1%. Other objectives with a real chance: Champions League (85.4%), Europa League (8.5%), and Conference League (3.4%). Next match: against Barcelona, away, in round 10. A win takes the chance of Champion to 18.7%; a loss, to 8.2%.
Qualification probabilities
Current situationZone trends
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Show history as a table
| Date | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/21/2026 | 12.4% | 85.4% | 8.5% | 3.4% | <0.1% |
| 10/19/2026 | 12.2% | 84.5% | 8.8% | 3.8% | <0.1% |
| 10/18/2026 | 12.3% | 82.9% | 9.6% | 4.4% | <0.1% |
| 10/17/2026 | 7.8% | 77.9% | 10.6% | 5.6% | <0.1% |
| 10/16/2026 | 9.8% | 74.0% | 13.0% | 6.7% | <0.1% |
| 10/12/2026 | 9.5% | 73.3% | 12.8% | 7.0% | <0.1% |
| 10/11/2026 | 9.7% | 73.2% | 12.5% | 7.3% | <0.1% |
| 10/10/2026 | 10.0% | 76.3% | 10.8% | 5.8% | <0.1% |
| 10/09/2026 | 6.7% | 59.8% | 13.0% | 8.8% | <0.1% |
| 09/20/2026 | 6.8% | 59.1% | 12.5% | 9.3% | <0.1% |
| 09/19/2026 | 17.1% | 83.8% | 7.4% | 4.1% | <0.1% |
| 09/18/2026 | 18.5% | 79.5% | 9.0% | 5.3% | <0.1% |
| 09/17/2026 | 19.7% | 79.1% | 9.4% | 4.9% | <0.1% |
| 09/16/2026 | 21.2% | 80.4% | 8.6% | 5.1% | <0.1% |
| 09/15/2026 | 26.3% | 83.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | <0.1% |
| 09/14/2026 | 18.9% | 73.6% | 8.7% | 6.0% | <0.1% |
| 09/13/2026 | 20.6% | 75.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | <0.1% |
| 09/12/2026 | 25.0% | 74.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | <0.1% |
| 09/11/2026 | 13.9% | 58.1% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 0.1% |
| 09/07/2026 | 13.9% | 60.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | <0.1% |
| 09/06/2026 | 13.8% | 61.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 0.1% |
| 09/05/2026 | 16.9% | 61.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 0.1% |
| 09/04/2026 | 16.1% | 61.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 0.2% |
| 09/03/2026 | 34.5% | 82.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | <0.1% |
| 08/31/2026 | 33.3% | 81.2% | 6.6% | 4.3% | <0.1% |
| 08/30/2026 | 39.1% | 82.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | <0.1% |
| 08/29/2026 | 30.9% | 76.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | <0.1% |
| 08/28/2026 | 28.7% | 76.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 0.1% |
| 08/27/2026 | 29.4% | 75.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | <0.1% |
| 08/26/2026 | 31.7% | 76.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | <0.1% |
| 08/25/2026 | 22.2% | 64.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 0.1% |
| 08/24/2026 | 24.2% | 65.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 0.2% |
| 08/23/2026 | 24.4% | 65.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 0.2% |
| 08/22/2026 | 24.2% | 66.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 0.1% |
| 08/21/2026 | 15.8% | 52.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 0.4% |
| 08/20/2026 | 16.4% | 51.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 0.6% |
| 08/19/2026 | 15.9% | 51.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 0.5% |
| 08/17/2026 | 18.0% | 51.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 0.5% |
| 08/16/2026 | 18.1% | 53.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 0.6% |
| 08/15/2026 | 18.3% | 53.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 0.7% |
| 08/14/2026 | 18.5% | 53.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 0.7% |
What the next match is worth
Real Madrid's chance of each objective depending on the result against Barcelona
| Objective | Now | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion | 12.4% | 18.7% | 12.1% | 8.2% |
| Champions League | 85.4% | 90.1% | 83.7% | 81.3% |
| Europa League | 8.5% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% |
| Conference League | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% |
Computed from the same 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season: we split the simulations by this match's result and count where the team finished in each case.
