Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Athletico-PR with a 21.6% chance and Vasco beat Flamengo with a 16.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 20 (before the first match) against those on September 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 64.8% | 76.1% | +11.3 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 77.3% | 88.2% | +10.9 |
| Atletico-MG | Champion | 17.9% | 8.6% | −9.3 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 64.9% | 73.9% | +9.1 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 96.9% | 90.3% | −6.6 |
| Santos | Libertadores Second Round | 9.7% | 15.3% | +5.6 |
| Fluminense | Relegation | 6.7% | 1.8% | −4.9 |
| Cruzeiro | Relegation | 7.7% | 2.9% | −4.8 |
| Flamengo | Libertadores Second Round | 11.2% | 6.5% | −4.7 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 9.6% | 5.1% | −4.5 |
