Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fluminense beat Botafogo with a 23.2% chance and Cruzeiro beat Vasco with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 16 (before the first match) against those on September 23 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 25.8% | 45.4% | +19.6 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 55.0% | 38.8% | −16.3 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 38.6% | 22.4% | −16.2 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 57.5% | 41.7% | −15.8 |
| Botafogo | Sudamericana | 40.7% | 55.2% | +14.5 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 49.4% | 63.6% | +14.2 |
| Vasco | Sudamericana | 42.4% | 56.6% | +14.1 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 37.8% | 51.2% | +13.4 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 65.1% | 51.9% | −13.2 |
| Grêmio | Sudamericana | 47.7% | 35.6% | −12.1 |
