Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Santos beat Atletico-MG with a 24.3% chance, Vasco beat Internacional with a 22.8% chance, and Sport beat Palmeiras with a 21.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 29 (before the first match) against those on September 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Champion | 21.9% | 92.8% | +71.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 33.5% | 89.3% | +55.8 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 9.7% | 58.9% | +49.2 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 82.1% | 42.2% | −39.9 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 48.7% | 10.6% | −38.1 |
| Botafogo | Champion | 36.3% | 0.3% | −36.0 |
| Botafogo | Sudamericana | 16.6% | 52.3% | +35.7 |
| Juventude | Relegation | 46.9% | 77.8% | +31.0 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 5.3% | 34.5% | +29.2 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 35.1% | 6.9% | −28.2 |
