Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fluminense beat São Paulo with a 18.9% chance, Sport beat Figueirense with a 20.7% chance, and Paraná beat Flamengo with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 10 (before the first match) against those on July 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 54.0% | 13.2% | −40.8 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 49.9% | 88.8% | +38.9 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 50.4% | 86.1% | +35.7 |
| Botafogo | Champion | 12.9% | 45.3% | +32.4 |
| Juventude | Relegation | 23.5% | 55.7% | +32.2 |
| Sport | Relegation | 48.1% | 18.9% | −29.2 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 8.9% | 37.2% | +28.4 |
| Cruzeiro | Relegation | 30.6% | 3.7% | −26.9 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 58.4% | 32.5% | −25.9 |
| Botafogo | Sudamericana | 36.6% | 12.7% | −23.9 |
