Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Náutico beat Corinthians with a 14.3% chance and São Paulo beat Cruzeiro with a 24.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 19 (before the first match) against those on July 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Náutico | Relegation | 88.8% | 75.3% | −13.5 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 32.5% | 45.6% | +13.1 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 50.4% | 63.1% | +12.7 |
| Juventude | Relegation | 55.7% | 43.1% | −12.5 |
| Corinthians | Relegation | 17.0% | 28.6% | +11.6 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 22.7% | 32.9% | +10.2 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 37.2% | 27.0% | −10.2 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 46.2% | 36.4% | −9.8 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 36.9% | 45.3% | +8.4 |
| Juventude | Sudamericana | 14.7% | 22.7% | +8.1 |
