Manchester City
Manchester City sits 1st in the table, with 21 points from 7 matches. The main open race is Champion: 50.9%. Over the last 5 updates, that chance has risen by 11.4 percentage points. Over the season it has ranged between 3.6% and 55.2%. Other objectives with a real chance: Champions League (91.6%), Europa League (3.5%), and Conference League (2.0%). Next match: against Aston Villa, away, in round 8. A win takes the chance of Champion to 56.3%; a loss, to 44.0%.
Qualification probabilities
Current situationZone trends
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Show history as a table
| Date | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/19/2026 | 50.9% | 91.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | <0.1% |
| 10/18/2026 | 49.2% | 91.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | <0.1% |
| 10/17/2026 | 55.2% | 92.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | <0.1% |
| 10/12/2026 | 49.9% | 88.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | <0.1% |
| 10/11/2026 | 49.0% | 88.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | <0.1% |
| 10/10/2026 | 39.6% | 80.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 0.1% |
| 09/20/2026 | 43.9% | 82.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| 09/19/2026 | 36.4% | 76.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 0.1% |
| 09/18/2026 | 31.3% | 75.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 0.1% |
| 09/14/2026 | 31.7% | 75.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 0.2% |
| 09/13/2026 | 33.2% | 76.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 0.1% |
| 09/12/2026 | 25.2% | 68.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 0.3% |
| 09/06/2026 | 27.1% | 67.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 0.1% |
| 09/05/2026 | 26.1% | 64.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 0.3% |
| 09/04/2026 | 16.8% | 51.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 0.8% |
| 08/31/2026 | 16.9% | 52.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 0.7% |
| 08/30/2026 | 18.2% | 53.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 0.7% |
| 08/29/2026 | 16.3% | 50.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 0.8% |
| 08/28/2026 | 17.1% | 51.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 1.1% |
| 08/24/2026 | 9.4% | 34.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| 08/23/2026 | 9.5% | 35.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| 08/22/2026 | 3.6% | 18.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 12.3% |
| 08/21/2026 | 4.9% | 19.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 13.9% |
What the next match is worth
Manchester City's chance of each objective depending on the result against Aston Villa
| Objective | Now | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion | 50.9% | 56.3% | 47.1% | 44.0% |
| Champions League | 91.6% | 94.7% | 91.5% | 89.2% |
| Conference League | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| Europa League | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% |
Computed from the same 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season: we split the simulations by this match's result and count where the team finished in each case.
