Trend — Relegation
Relegation probability over time
Sunderland leads the race for Relegation, at 56.4%. 16 teams still in contention have a 1% chance or more. Biggest riser over the last 5 updates: Nottingham (+28.1 pp). Biggest faller: Fulham (−29.1 pp).
Recent movement
| Team | Now | 5 updates ago | Change (pp) | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 56.4% | 40.4% | +16.0 | 56.4% |
| Nottingham | 42.4% | 14.4% | +28.1 | 42.4% |
| Fulham | 23.6% | 52.7% | −29.1 | 52.7% |
| Newcastle | 20.7% | 3.3% | +17.3 | 20.7% |
| Coventry City | 20.3% | 22.2% | −1.9 | 60.9% |
| Bournemouth | 19.9% | 45.2% | −25.2 | 49.9% |
| Crystal Palace | 19.1% | 20.7% | −1.6 | 44.6% |
| Manchester United | 18.7% | 16.5% | +2.1 | 29.8% |
| Tottenham | 18.5% | 41.6% | −23.1 | 50.6% |
| Hull City | 15.7% | 6.2% | +9.5 | 15.7% |
| Ipswich Town | 10.8% | 4.3% | +6.6 | 20.8% |
| Leeds United | 8.3% | 5.5% | +2.8 | 15.3% |
| Everton | 8.1% | 2.0% | +6.1 | 14.7% |
| Brentford | 7.6% | 2.8% | +4.8 | 14.1% |
| Aston Villa | 7.1% | 17.7% | −10.6 | 48.1% |
| Liverpool | 1.8% | 1.4% | +0.4 | 14.5% |
| Chelsea | 0.9% | 2.7% | −1.8 | 14.1% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 0.1% | 0.3% | −0.1 | 13.8% |
| Arsenal | 0.1% | 0.2% | −0.1 | 4.6% |
| Manchester City | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0 | 13.9% |
Relegation: the first team out should finish with about 42 points (40 to 45 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Coventry City, 17th, with 6.
Current ranking
1
Sunderland56.4%2
Nottingham42.4%3
Fulham23.6%4
Newcastle20.7%5
Coventry City20.3%6
Bournemouth19.9%7
Crystal Palace19.1%8
Manchester United18.7%9
Tottenham18.5%10
Hull City15.7%11
Ipswich Town10.8%12
Leeds United8.3%13
Everton8.1%14
Brentford7.6%15
Aston Villa7.1%16
Liverpool1.8%17
Chelsea0.9%18
Brighton & Hove Albion0.1%19
Arsenal0.1%20
Manchester City<0.1%
Sunderland56.4%2Nottingham42.4%3Fulham23.6%4Newcastle20.7%5Coventry City20.3%6Bournemouth19.9%7Crystal Palace19.1%8Manchester United18.7%9Tottenham18.5%10Hull City15.7%11Ipswich Town10.8%12Leeds United8.3%13Everton8.1%14Brentford7.6%15Aston Villa7.1%16Liverpool1.8%17Chelsea0.9%18Brighton & Hove Albion0.1%19Arsenal0.1%20Manchester City<0.1%Trend
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