Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Aston Villa beat Chelsea with a 19.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 19 (before the first match) against those on April 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Champions League | 37.7% | 59.1% | +21.4 |
| Bournemouth | Relegation | 60.1% | 44.4% | −15.7 |
| Southampton | Relegation | 74.6% | 84.1% | +9.5 |
| Leeds United | Relegation | 18.6% | 26.0% | +7.4 |
| Crystal Palace | Relegation | 10.8% | 4.4% | −6.4 |
| Liverpool | Champions League | 18.0% | 11.6% | −6.3 |
| Manchester United | Champions League | 82.7% | 76.9% | −5.9 |
| Newcastle | Conference League | 17.7% | 11.9% | −5.8 |
| West Ham | Relegation | 16.6% | 10.8% | −5.7 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 39.0% | 33.7% | −5.3 |
