Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Aston Villa beat Chelsea with a 18.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 2 (before the first match) against those on May 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Champion | 4.9% | 100% | +95.1 |
| Manchester United | Champion | 92.6% | 0% | −92.6 |
| Liverpool | Europa League | 40.2% | 100% | +59.8 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 46.0% | 100% | +54.0 |
| Chelsea | Europa League | 44.4% | 91.9% | +47.5 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Europa League | 42.6% | 0% | −42.6 |
| Arsenal | Europa League | 37.3% | 0% | −37.3 |
| Everton | Relegation | 16.3% | 44.3% | +28.0 |
| Bolton Wanderers | Relegation | 83.1% | 55.7% | −27.4 |
| Derby County | Europa League | 20.4% | 0% | −20.4 |
