Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano sits 12th in the table, with 9 points from 8 matches. The main open race is Champions League: 5.2%. That chance has barely moved over the last 5 updates. Over the season it has ranged between 1.7% and 11.3%. Other objectives with a real chance: Europa League (5.0%), Conference League (5.9%), and Relegation (10.1%). Next match: against Elche, at home, in round 10. A win takes the chance of Relegation to 5.8%; a loss, to 14.1%.
Qualification probabilities
Current situationZone trends
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Show history as a table
| Date | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/21/2026 | 0.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 10.1% |
| 10/19/2026 | 0.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.4% |
| 10/18/2026 | 0.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% |
| 10/17/2026 | 0.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% |
| 10/16/2026 | 0.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% |
| 10/12/2026 | 0.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% |
| 10/11/2026 | 0.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.8% |
| 10/10/2026 | 0.3% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.9% |
| 10/09/2026 | 0.4% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 10.9% |
| 09/20/2026 | 0.5% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 10.9% |
| 09/19/2026 | 0.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 10.1% |
| 09/18/2026 | 0.8% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% |
| 09/17/2026 | 0.8% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| 09/16/2026 | 0.8% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% |
| 09/15/2026 | 1.0% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% |
| 09/14/2026 | 0.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 19.9% |
| 09/13/2026 | 0.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 20.9% |
| 09/12/2026 | 0.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 21.9% |
| 09/11/2026 | 1.0% | 9.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 10.2% |
| 09/07/2026 | 1.0% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 10.0% |
| 09/06/2026 | 1.2% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 11.4% |
| 09/05/2026 | 1.1% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 12.4% |
| 09/04/2026 | 0.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 37.0% |
| 09/03/2026 | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 36.5% |
| 08/31/2026 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 36.4% |
| 08/30/2026 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 23.1% |
| 08/29/2026 | 0.6% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 23.8% |
| 08/28/2026 | 0.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 20.4% |
| 08/27/2026 | 0.7% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 20.8% |
| 08/26/2026 | 0.8% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 22.6% |
| 08/25/2026 | 0.8% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 24.1% |
| 08/24/2026 | 0.8% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 26.0% |
| 08/23/2026 | 0.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 25.0% |
| 08/22/2026 | 0.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 26.7% |
| 08/21/2026 | 0.9% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 28.6% |
| 08/20/2026 | 1.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 29.1% |
| 08/19/2026 | 1.0% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 29.6% |
| 08/17/2026 | 1.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 30.6% |
| 08/16/2026 | 1.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 31.4% |
| 08/15/2026 | 1.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 31.8% |
What the next match is worth
Rayo Vallecano's chance of each objective depending on the result against Elche
| Objective | Now | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relegation | 10.1% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 14.1% |
| Champions League | 5.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% |
| Conference League | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% |
| Europa League | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% |
Computed from the same 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season: we split the simulations by this match's result and count where the team finished in each case.
