Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Real Valladolid with a 22.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 29 (before the first match) against those on October 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | Relegation | 12.0% | 4.1% | −7.9 |
| Valencia | Relegation play-off | 18.9% | 12.5% | −6.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 51.9% | 45.6% | −6.3 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation play-off | 14.0% | 20.3% | +6.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 28.5% | 22.4% | −6.1 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 47.7% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation play-off | 10.6% | 5.8% | −4.8 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 42.9% | 47.6% | +4.7 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation play-off | 18.4% | 23.0% | +4.7 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 13.6% | 18.3% | +4.6 |
