Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Vitória beat Atletico-MG with a 23.2% chance, São Paulo beat Palmeiras with a 23.2% chance, and Grêmio beat Avaí with a 23.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 16 (before the first match) against those on September 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória | Relegation | 30.6% | 14.0% | −16.6 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 55.5% | 66.5% | +11.1 |
| Grêmio | Relegation | 17.3% | 6.9% | −10.4 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 20.6% | 30.8% | +10.1 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 37.2% | 46.6% | +9.4 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 61.1% | 69.9% | +8.8 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 74.6% | 81.8% | +7.2 |
| Palmeiras | Sudamericana | 11.3% | 5.2% | −6.1 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 10.1% | 16.1% | +6.0 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 13.5% | 19.2% | +5.7 |
