Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Corinthians beat Fluminense with a 23.2% chance, Palmeiras beat Grêmio with a 24.0% chance, and Internacional beat São Paulo with a 23.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 12 (before the first match) against those on September 16 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | Champion | 41.9% | 23.8% | −18.1 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 65.0% | 47.1% | −18.0 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 46.6% | 61.1% | +14.5 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 23.5% | 37.2% | +13.6 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 27.1% | 13.7% | −13.4 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Relegation | 56.0% | 69.1% | +13.1 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 80.9% | 70.5% | −10.4 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 25.6% | 16.7% | −8.9 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores Second Round | 23.9% | 32.0% | +8.1 |
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 13.4% | 5.7% | −7.7 |
