Trend — Champions League
Champions League probability over time
Manchester City leads the race for Champions League, at 91.6%. 18 teams still in contention have a 1% chance or more. Biggest riser over the last 5 updates: Chelsea (+18.9 pp). Biggest faller: Everton (−17.7 pp).
Recent movement
| Team | Now | 5 updates ago | Change (pp) | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 91.6% | 80.2% | +11.4 | 92.0% |
| Arsenal | 76.9% | 63.5% | +13.4 | 78.1% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 71.7% | 59.8% | +11.9 | 72.8% |
| Chelsea | 41.6% | 22.7% | +18.9 | 52.6% |
| Liverpool | 30.9% | 33.3% | −2.3 | 36.5% |
| Aston Villa | 12.3% | 4.4% | +7.9 | 19.9% |
| Everton | 10.8% | 28.5% | −17.7 | 37.7% |
| Brentford | 10.6% | 22.9% | −12.2 | 38.5% |
| Leeds United | 10.4% | 13.7% | −3.3 | 41.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 8.3% | 17.8% | −9.5 | 36.8% |
| Hull City | 5.2% | 13.0% | −7.8 | 51.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 4.6% | 3.7% | +0.9 | 19.9% |
| Manchester United | 4.6% | 4.4% | +0.1 | 20.8% |
| Tottenham | 4.5% | 0.9% | +3.5 | 19.2% |
| Bournemouth | 3.9% | 0.7% | +3.2 | 19.9% |
| Coventry City | 3.9% | 3.5% | +0.4 | 11.3% |
| Newcastle | 3.8% | 20.0% | −16.2 | 28.9% |
| Fulham | 2.9% | 0.4% | +2.5 | 19.4% |
| Nottingham | 1.0% | 5.6% | −4.7 | 19.9% |
| Sunderland | 0.5% | 1.0% | −0.5 | 19.8% |
Champions League: the last team in should finish with about 61 points (58 to 65 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Chelsea, 4th, with 13.
Current ranking
1
Manchester City91.6%2
Arsenal76.9%3
Brighton & Hove Albion71.7%4
Chelsea41.6%5
Liverpool30.9%6
Aston Villa12.3%7
Everton10.8%8
Brentford10.6%9
Leeds United10.4%10
Ipswich Town8.3%11
Hull City5.2%12
Crystal Palace4.6%13
Manchester United4.6%14
Tottenham4.5%15
Bournemouth3.9%16
Coventry City3.9%17
Newcastle3.8%18
Fulham2.9%19
Nottingham1.0%20
Sunderland0.5%
Manchester City91.6%2Arsenal76.9%3Brighton & Hove Albion71.7%4Chelsea41.6%5Liverpool30.9%6Aston Villa12.3%7Everton10.8%8Brentford10.6%9Leeds United10.4%10Ipswich Town8.3%11Hull City5.2%12Crystal Palace4.6%13Manchester United4.6%14Tottenham4.5%15Bournemouth3.9%16Coventry City3.9%17Newcastle3.8%18Fulham2.9%19Nottingham1.0%20Sunderland0.5%Trend
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