Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Derby County beat Bolton Wanderers with a 23.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 13 (before the first match) against those on March 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | Relegation | 37.3% | 55.7% | +18.4 |
| Newcastle | Champions League | 74.8% | 61.2% | −13.6 |
| Newcastle | Europa League | 25.1% | 38.6% | +13.6 |
| Derby County | Relegation | 85.3% | 72.4% | −12.9 |
| Everton | Relegation | 24.3% | 13.1% | −11.2 |
| Chelsea | Champions League | 24.6% | 29.5% | +4.9 |
| Arsenal | Champion | 48.4% | 53.2% | +4.7 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 5.5% | 1.6% | −3.8 |
| Leeds United | Champions League | 10.6% | 14.2% | +3.7 |
| Chelsea | Europa League | 73.5% | 69.9% | −3.7 |
