Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 3 draws and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Bolton Wanderers beat Charlton Athletic with a 15.3% chance and Middlesbrough beat Manchester United with a 10.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 18 (before the first match) against those on April 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | Relegation | 23.4% | 84.1% | +60.7 |
| Bolton Wanderers | Relegation | 55.7% | 3.3% | −52.5 |
| Newcastle | Champions League | 61.2% | 100% | +38.8 |
| Newcastle | Europa League | 38.6% | 0% | −38.6 |
| Chelsea | Europa League | 69.9% | 100% | +30.1 |
| Chelsea | Champions League | 29.5% | 0% | −29.5 |
| Arsenal | Champion | 53.2% | 80.8% | +27.6 |
| Derby County | Relegation | 72.4% | 100% | +27.6 |
| Manchester United | Champion | 30.6% | 9.9% | −20.7 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Relegation | 17.8% | 0.3% | −17.5 |
