Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 23.5% chance, Real Betis beat Barcelona with a 21.1% chance, and Real Zaragoza beat Real Madrid with a 17.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 27 (before the first match) against those on May 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 67.2% | 25.4% | −41.8 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 20.6% | 44.6% | +23.9 |
| Tenerife | Relegation play-off | 36.8% | 14.3% | −22.5 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 27.5% | 48.7% | +21.2 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 29.2% | 10.1% | −19.1 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 26.3% | 44.9% | +18.6 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 59.3% | 42.6% | −16.7 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 16.0% | 31.6% | +15.7 |
| Mérida | Relegation play-off | 44.4% | 59.0% | +14.6 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 42.7% | 32.2% | −10.5 |
