Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Mallorca beat Atlético Madrid with a 15.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 14 (before the first match) against those on April 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | Champion | 49.1% | 99.7% | +50.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 34.6% | 0.3% | −34.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 39.6% | 7.5% | −32.1 |
| Mallorca | Europa League | 0.9% | 30.1% | +29.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 24.6% | 0.6% | −24.0 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 76.8% | >99.9% | +23.3 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 23.0% | 0.1% | −22.9 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 19.0% | 41.6% | +22.7 |
| Valencia | Relegation play-off | 19.5% | <0.1% | −19.5 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 36.9% | 18.9% | −18.0 |
