Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Oviedo beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 19.2% chance and Rayo Vallecano beat Mérida with a 22.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 8 (before the first match) against those on May 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 60.0% | 10.2% | −49.8 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 28.7% | 65.4% | +36.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 32.8% | 55.4% | +22.6 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 31.0% | 10.4% | −20.5 |
| Mérida | Relegation play-off | 48.5% | 28.9% | −19.6 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 80.9% | 93.5% | +12.6 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 3.6% | 12.8% | +9.3 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 84.1% | 93.1% | +8.9 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 7.2% | 0.1% | −7.1 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 7.4% | 11.4% | +4.1 |
