Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Espanyol beat Real Betis with a 24.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 28 (before the first match) against those on May 8 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 35.0% | 3.6% | −31.4 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 30.7% | 60.0% | +29.3 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 14.6% | 31.0% | +16.4 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 81.2% | 96.0% | +14.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 81.2% | 96.0% | +14.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 18.8% | 4.0% | −14.8 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 11.8% | 1.0% | −10.8 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 11.8% | 1.0% | −10.8 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 19.3% | 28.7% | +9.4 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 40.9% | 32.8% | −8.0 |
