Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Atlético Madrid with a 23.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 21 (before the first match) against those on May 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | Europa League | 29.7% | 9.1% | −20.6 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 38.9% | 18.5% | −20.3 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 76.5% | 91.6% | +15.1 |
| Sevilla | Relegation play-off | 15.4% | 4.5% | −10.8 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 21.6% | 30.7% | +9.2 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 26.3% | 35.0% | +8.7 |
| Albacete | Relegation play-off | 41.9% | 46.8% | +4.9 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 10.2% | 14.8% | +4.6 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 88.9% | 93.5% | +4.5 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 1.9% | 6.0% | +4.1 |
