Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Madrid beat Atlético Madrid with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 28 (before the first match) against those on March 31 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 29.4% | 17.3% | −12.1 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 4.7% | 14.2% | +9.5 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 4.7% | 14.2% | +9.5 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 19.6% | 28.9% | +9.3 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 81.0% | 71.9% | −9.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 90.6% | 81.7% | −8.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 90.6% | 81.7% | −8.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 9.3% | 18.2% | +8.9 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 18.3% | 24.2% | +5.8 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 7.0% | 1.8% | −5.2 |
