Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Tenerife beat Compostela with a 24.6% chance and Sporting Gijón beat Real Madrid with a 17.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 31 (before the first match) against those on April 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida | Relegation | 59.7% | 41.6% | −18.0 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 28.9% | 43.5% | +14.6 |
| Mérida | Relegation play-off | 28.0% | 40.7% | +12.7 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 17.3% | 5.8% | −11.4 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 71.9% | 80.6% | +8.6 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 17.4% | 11.7% | −5.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 24.2% | 29.6% | +5.5 |
| Albacete | Relegation play-off | 47.4% | 42.1% | −5.3 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation play-off | 15.3% | 10.3% | −5.0 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 7.6% | 2.7% | −4.9 |
