Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 5 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Racing Santander with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 17 (before the first match) against those on March 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | Europa League | 25.4% | 13.7% | −11.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 21.6% | 11.0% | −10.6 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 15.0% | 5.0% | −10.0 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 56.9% | 66.0% | +9.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 89.4% | 80.4% | −9.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 89.4% | 80.4% | −9.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 10.2% | 18.9% | +8.7 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 24.7% | 32.7% | +8.0 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 53.5% | 60.5% | +7.0 |
| Albacete | Relegation play-off | 41.7% | 48.2% | +6.5 |
