Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 7 home wins, no draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Racing Santander beat Real Zaragoza with a 21.2% chance and Tenerife beat Real Oviedo with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 10 (before the first match) against those on March 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | Europa League | 41.7% | 56.9% | +15.2 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 39.5% | 25.4% | −14.1 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 42.2% | 53.5% | +11.2 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 19.7% | 9.6% | −10.1 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 66.8% | 75.3% | +8.5 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 13.5% | 5.3% | −8.2 |
| Compostela | Europa League | 14.7% | 7.6% | −7.1 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 26.9% | 33.8% | +6.9 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 28.4% | 21.6% | −6.8 |
| Albacete | Relegation play-off | 35.2% | 41.7% | +6.5 |
