Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Albacete with a 21.5% chance and Real Valladolid beat Atlético Madrid with a 15.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 3 (before the first match) against those on March 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 37.9% | 19.7% | −18.2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 28.2% | 13.5% | −14.7 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 68.0% | 82.1% | +14.1 |
| Compostela | Europa League | 27.3% | 14.7% | −12.6 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 31.1% | 42.2% | +11.1 |
| Albacete | Relegation play-off | 24.9% | 35.2% | +10.3 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 31.8% | 41.7% | +9.9 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 76.4% | 66.8% | −9.6 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 13.4% | 22.8% | +9.4 |
| Salamanca | Relegation play-off | 20.4% | 13.1% | −7.3 |
