Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Sevilla beat Espanyol with a 20.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 25 (before the first match) against those on March 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 54.0% | 37.9% | −16.1 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 42.4% | 33.3% | −9.1 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 23.1% | 31.1% | +8.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 20.3% | 28.2% | +7.9 |
| Sevilla | Relegation play-off | 11.1% | 4.6% | −6.5 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation play-off | 14.8% | 8.4% | −6.4 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 70.7% | 76.4% | +5.7 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation play-off | 25.7% | 31.5% | +5.7 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 63.2% | 68.0% | +4.9 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 4.1% | 8.5% | +4.4 |
