Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Sevilla beat Atlético Madrid with a 19.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 4 (before the first match) against those on February 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 86.8% | 77.6% | −9.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 86.8% | 77.6% | −9.2 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 21.1% | 12.8% | −8.4 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 18.7% | 10.7% | −8.0 |
| Sevilla | Relegation play-off | 22.0% | 14.0% | −8.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 11.9% | 19.6% | +7.7 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 12.9% | 5.4% | −7.5 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 54.8% | 61.3% | +6.5 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 4.4% | 9.9% | +5.5 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 4.4% | 9.9% | +5.5 |
