Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Oviedo beat Athletic Club with a 22.8% chance and Racing Santander beat Sevilla with a 20.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 28 (before the first match) against those on February 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 75.2% | 86.8% | +11.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 75.2% | 86.8% | +11.6 |
| Compostela | Europa League | 12.4% | 23.4% | +11.0 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 20.1% | 31.0% | +10.9 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 65.3% | 54.8% | −10.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 21.3% | 11.9% | −9.4 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation play-off | 24.7% | 15.5% | −9.3 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 16.3% | 7.7% | −8.6 |
| Sevilla | Relegation play-off | 15.1% | 22.0% | +6.8 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 36.2% | 42.9% | +6.7 |
