Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Valladolid beat Compostela with a 16.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 25 (before the first match) against those on January 28 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 81.4% | 65.3% | −16.2 |
| Compostela | Europa League | 23.9% | 12.4% | −11.5 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 26.5% | 36.2% | +9.7 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation play-off | 12.3% | 19.8% | +7.5 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 42.5% | 48.9% | +6.4 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 69.2% | 75.2% | +6.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 69.2% | 75.2% | +6.0 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 25.9% | 31.1% | +5.1 |
| Espanyol | Champion | 15.0% | 10.1% | −4.9 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 15.0% | 10.1% | −4.9 |
