Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Athletic Club beat Real Madrid with a 19.6% chance and Atlético Madrid beat Racing Santander with a 24.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 3 (before the first match) against those on September 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 20.6% | 12.5% | −8.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 20.6% | 12.5% | −8.2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 49.7% | 57.2% | +7.5 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 18.3% | 10.9% | −7.5 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 18.3% | 10.9% | −7.5 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 15.0% | 8.6% | −6.4 |
| Espanyol | Champion | 8.7% | 15.0% | +6.3 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 8.7% | 15.0% | +6.3 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation play-off | 8.7% | 14.4% | +5.7 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 25.3% | 20.0% | −5.4 |
