Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 7 home wins, no draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Real Betis with a 18.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 21 (before the first match) against those on January 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 49.9% | 33.3% | −16.6 |
| Espanyol | Champion | 24.0% | 14.2% | −9.8 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 24.0% | 14.2% | −9.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 51.7% | 61.0% | +9.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 51.7% | 61.0% | +9.3 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 18.1% | 9.7% | −8.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation play-off | 14.0% | 7.0% | −7.0 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 27.2% | 33.0% | +5.7 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 25.0% | 30.4% | +5.3 |
| Albacete | Relegation play-off | 20.6% | 25.8% | +5.2 |
