Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Tenerife beat Real Sociedad with a 22.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 17 (before the first match) against those on December 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 39.5% | 51.7% | +12.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 39.5% | 51.7% | +12.2 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 19.7% | 12.5% | −7.3 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 20.3% | 14.2% | −6.2 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 20.3% | 14.2% | −6.2 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.5 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation play-off | 10.2% | 15.6% | +5.4 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 6.6% | 11.7% | +5.1 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation play-off | 9.0% | 14.0% | +5.0 |
| Albacete | Relegation play-off | 25.5% | 20.6% | −4.9 |
