Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Zaragoza beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 19.5% chance and Compostela beat Real Sociedad with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 3 (before the first match) against those on December 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | Champion | 35.2% | 23.3% | −11.9 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 35.2% | 23.3% | −11.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 26.2% | 33.3% | +7.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 26.2% | 33.3% | +7.1 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 22.3% | 15.3% | −7.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 37.2% | 42.5% | +5.2 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 18.4% | 23.5% | +5.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation play-off | 16.3% | 11.5% | −4.9 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 9.5% | 4.9% | −4.7 |
| Espanyol | Champion | 21.0% | 25.6% | +4.6 |
