Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Sociedad beat Valencia with a 20.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 26 (before the first match) against those on December 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 52.5% | 37.2% | −15.3 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 25.6% | 32.3% | +6.8 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 27.7% | 34.2% | +6.5 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 43.3% | 37.8% | −5.5 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 17.1% | 22.3% | +5.3 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 18.9% | 24.1% | +5.2 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 13.3% | 9.0% | −4.3 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 38.8% | 42.8% | +4.0 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 14.4% | 18.4% | +3.9 |
| Espanyol | Champion | 24.9% | 21.0% | −3.9 |
