Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Londrina beat Vila Nova with a 12.1% chance and Tombense beat Ponte Preta with a 22.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 10 (before the first match) against those on August 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória | Promotion | 20.7% | 88.8% | +68.1 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 82.2% | 20.0% | −62.1 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 84.0% | 31.1% | −52.9 |
| Vitória | Champion | 2.0% | 49.4% | +47.3 |
| Vila Nova | Champion | 37.5% | 3.0% | −34.5 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Relegation | 14.1% | 44.3% | +30.3 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 24.3% | 51.4% | +27.1 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 79.7% | 53.1% | −26.6 |
| ABC | Relegation | 77.3% | 98.7% | +21.5 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 29.2% | 8.9% | −20.2 |
